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CheddarPlease said:
Shtinamin_ said:

@CheddarPlease Thank you, I enjoyed doing this. So I'm glad you liked it.

I would love to see a rundown for your 165M estimate. :)

@Shtinamin_ Here it is! (keep in mind I prefer rounding to quarters of a million to account for uncertainty)

I actually have mine at just over about 161m, though I prefer to ever-so-slightly sandbag my numbers to make sure I don't overshoot too far since my goal baseline is still 160m.

Q4 FY2023: my prediction originally was a conservative 2.25m, but in light of strong Japan sales I raised it to 2.50m, which I'm keeping for the sake of consistency, even if sales are showing slightly more atm. Total through March 31 should be at least 141.86m, with a roughly 35/30/25/10 split between AM/JP/EUR/Other. Nintendo will probably shoot for a 10-11m fiscal year for Switch alone, maybe 14m if they decide to tease Switch 2 by the end of the fiscal year, but I assume they will aim for a more conservative target as they did last year. If the sales target is above 11m for Switch 1, 160m would be close to a lock, but 10-11m means that chances would still be around 66-75%.

Q1 FY2024: As in your case, a strong release calendar should keep sales elevated, even with Switch 2 around the corner. In keeping with my more conservative estimates I project sales of 2.75m. Sales will remain strong in Japan, but weaker platform sales in NA and Europe will probably keep overall totals below 2023 levels. Sales in the US may increase during this time, but this is where I believe the greatest uncertainty lies. Total through June 31 is 144.61m

Q2 FY2024: As @RolStoppable has been predicting, I expect new games to be announced for this quarter, due to the tight release schedule in the summer implying Nintendo has additional releases to plug the gap. MP4 will probably be announced for H2 2024 during a summer direct IMO. Nonetheless, this would probably come in time for a Switch 2 unveil, which would probably result in a slight sales depression regardless of lineup. This is where estimate ranges begin to diverge (I could see as high as 2.5m this quarter). As my predictions are meant to be a least-case scenario for reaching 160m, I will go with a soft case of 2.25m, though I must reiterate that the announcement of a successor would probably do more to dampen sales than weak release calendar (which I do not believe will be the case). Total through September 31 is 146.86m.

Q3 FY2024: This will be the first quarter with extensive bundles and discounts due to Nintendo wanting to clear out stock before Switch 2. I agree with your prediction that base SKU will be discontinued and OLED model cut in price. I expect the base model to go down to $250m, with the Lite and OLED remaining unchanged besides for more aggressive bundling due to Nintendo's rapid discontinuation of the base model. Sales overall will depend on the presence of a strong holiday title, hopefully being MP4, which will dictate overall sales momentum, as will the extent of discounts and bundles. The range here is very high, between 4.5-6m depending on if the holiday is more similar to 3DS 2016, Switch 2023, or Wii 2010. Once again targeting the lower end, I predict sales of 4.75m. Total through September 31 is 151.61m. Calendar year 2023 shipments by territory would be ~4.35m for the Americas (with a large portion of that coming from holiday promotions), ~3.1m for Japan, with a slightly bigger but still practically nonexistent holiday bump a la 2023, ~2.6m for Europe, with poor sales only slightly compensated by holiday bundles, and ~2m for other territories, in line with previous year trends. Total breakdown by territory is 58.25m/36.5m/38.75m/18m

Q4 FY2024: Sales will continue to decline in the wake of Switch 2 release in ~Mar 2025, with sales slipping in March 2025 especially: 1.75m. Most interesting and critical projection is sales expectation for 2025. I predict 18m for Switch 2, on par with the Wii's initial sales trajectory, but less sure for the original Switch. As much as I would like to see 7m sales for this year, 3DS only managed 6m on the back of a new and popular model revision (2DSXL) and continued exclusives such as a Pokemon game revision that year, which Switch will lack due to Switch 2 being almost certainly being backward-compatible. Total through March 31, 2025 is 153.36m.

Outlook for FY 2025 will be just under 6m, with sales being tilted strongly towards holiday sales to clear inventory. Total through March 31, 2026 is 159.11m. However, while I predict sales in 2025 to be below your 6m target, I do believe that Nintendo will continue to sell the Switch through 2027. For context, the 3DS still sold an additional 3.5m post-2017. As such I predict Switch will sell an additional 2.5m before its discontinuation, for a final total of 161.61m. Final regional breakdown: 62m in North America, 39m in Japan, 41m in Europe, and 19.5m in other territories. 

Keep in mind, these number are as conservative as they can get while still projecting for above 160m in sales. With your numbers through 2026, I would expect final sales of over 165m. Assuming the latter half of this year is stronger than it currently looks and that Switch continues to get software support even after its replacement a la the PS4, we could conceivably see a high-end breakdown like this:
2.75m Q4 FY2023 - 142.11m Total (16.5m for FY2023)
3.10m Q1 FY2024 - 145.21m Total 
2.50m Q2 FY2024 - 147.71m Total 
5.50m Q3 FY2024 - 153.21m Total 
2.00m Q4 FY2024 - 155.21m Total (13.1m for FY2024)
7.50m      FY2025 - 162.71m Total
3.00m   2026-End - 165.71m FINAL

Alright, this is exciting news. Nintendo has announced their FY report for 2024 (this one that just finished March 31, 2024 is considered FY'24 oops). And its just full of good news. Lets dive into it and then project the future, while also providing a decent timeline with speculation.

Q4 FY'24 was the only let down that I had. VGChartz overestimated sales in Asia and OEA, and that is alright. 1.95M units were shipped, but that doesnt mean that 2.72M were not sold? Either way Switch total for shipped is 141.32M. They also project their FY goal for 2025 at 13.5M.

Q1 FY'25 So far we have seen some great numbers from Japan and await the Golden week's numbers. Endless Ocean is a low system seller, and that was to be expected. Paper Mario will boost sales. Luigi Mansion 2 HD wont to too much. There will be a Nintendo Direct that will focus on the 2nd half of 2024. I predict that because the FY is high as it will only be a -14.0% decline in hardware, a decrease in revenue by only -19.3%, and a decrease in software sales by -17.4% they will have any of following announcement (maybe more than one of the following):

Announce any of the following games

Mario Party iteration
Metroid Prime 4
Nintendo World Champions NES Deluxe
DK (due to DKC in Universal & his presence in the movie)
Rhythm Heaven
Remake of Kid Icarus (1986)
Mario & Sonic @ Paris Olympics 2024
Pokémon (small game)
Mario RPG 2 (why remake old RPG's if they weren't gonna add to them and test the waters)
Flip Studio 
Art Academy

Permanent Price Cuts ranging from $50-100 off on hardware & $30 on the majority of Nintendo licensed games. Starting June 30th 2024.

You see according to the average cost of a Switch and a game $300 and $60 respectively, there has to be price cuts because the earnings from just those two alone given their FY goals is ¥2,073.4b which is ¥722.4b more ¥ than expected. But if you drop the average cost of the Switch $50 (¥472,5b) and drop the price of the average game by $30 (¥651b) and increase the "other" category from the FY report by 18% (¥122.5b), we will be right at their Revenue goal at ¥1,350.27b.

Permanent Bundles for the Holiday Season

Since not every Nintendo licensed game will be at $30 *cough, cough TotK, SMBW, Pikmin 4, Legends Z-A, and other brand new titles*, they will package many of their games in a bundle with the Price Cut Switch. Meaning for $250 you get a V2 Switch, and a game.
Some bundles may be the following (digital and/or physical:

MK8D + booster course

Shipping 3.4M units. Bringing the total to be 144.72M

    Q2 FY'25 A consistent and constant stream of Nintendo licensed IP are released. Ship 2.7M units. Bringing the total to be 147.42M

    Q3 FY'25 Bundles, Price drops, and a slew of games provide the Switch with its last solo holiday. Ship 5.6M units. Bringing the total to 153.02M

    Q4 FY'25 They announce the Successor in January and provide a release date for April 3rd 2025. Legends Z-A releases and provides a huge boost for sales. Ship 1.8 units. March 31, 2025. They reach their goal of 154.82M surpassing the DS and becoming the #2 best selling console of all time worldwide. They will project their FY '25 goal at 25M (18M Successor, 7M Switch).

    Regional Breakdown:

    • JP 4.5M
    • Americas 4.14M
    • Europe 2.86M
    • Other 2M

    Q4 FY'26 The Legend of Zelda Movie releases in theaters. 

    Now seeing that they have a 13.5M hardware shipment goal, I am starting to think that even 165M is a bit low now. I will have to sit on this until the June Direct.

    Lifetime Sales Predictions 

    Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

    PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

    Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

    "The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.