CheddarPlease said:
@Shtinamin_ Here it is! (keep in mind I prefer rounding to quarters of a million to account for uncertainty) Q3 FY2024: This will be the first quarter with extensive bundles and discounts due to Nintendo wanting to clear out stock before Switch 2. I agree with your prediction that base SKU will be discontinued and OLED model cut in price. I expect the base model to go down to $250m, with the Lite and OLED remaining unchanged besides for more aggressive bundling due to Nintendo's rapid discontinuation of the base model. Sales overall will depend on the presence of a strong holiday title, hopefully being MP4, which will dictate overall sales momentum, as will the extent of discounts and bundles. The range here is very high, between 4.5-6m depending on if the holiday is more similar to 3DS 2016, Switch 2023, or Wii 2010. Once again targeting the lower end, I predict sales of 4.75m. Total through September 31 is 151.61m. Calendar year 2023 shipments by territory would be ~4.35m for the Americas (with a large portion of that coming from holiday promotions), ~3.1m for Japan, with a slightly bigger but still practically nonexistent holiday bump a la 2023, ~2.6m for Europe, with poor sales only slightly compensated by holiday bundles, and ~2m for other territories, in line with previous year trends. Total breakdown by territory is 58.25m/36.5m/38.75m/18m Spoiler! Keep in mind, these number are as conservative as they can get while still projecting for above 160m in sales. With your numbers through 2026, I would expect final sales of over 165m. Assuming the latter half of this year is stronger than it currently looks and that Switch continues to get software support even after its replacement a la the PS4, we could conceivably see a high-end breakdown like this: 2.75m Q4 FY2023 - 142.11m Total (16.5m for FY2023) 3.10m Q1 FY2024 - 145.21m Total 2.50m Q2 FY2024 - 147.71m Total 5.50m Q3 FY2024 - 153.21m Total 2.00m Q4 FY2024 - 155.21m Total (13.1m for FY2024) 7.50m FY2025 - 162.71m Total 3.00m 2026-End - 165.71m FINAL |
Alright, this is exciting news. Nintendo has announced their FY report for 2024 (this one that just finished March 31, 2024 is considered FY'24 oops). And its just full of good news. Lets dive into it and then project the future, while also providing a decent timeline with speculation.
Q4 FY'24 was the only let down that I had. VGChartz overestimated sales in Asia and OEA, and that is alright. 1.95M units were shipped, but that doesnt mean that 2.72M were not sold? Either way Switch total for shipped is 141.32M. They also project their FY goal for 2025 at 13.5M.
Q1 FY'25 So far we have seen some great numbers from Japan and await the Golden week's numbers. Endless Ocean is a low system seller, and that was to be expected. Paper Mario will boost sales. Luigi Mansion 2 HD wont to too much. There will be a Nintendo Direct that will focus on the 2nd half of 2024. I predict that because the FY is high as it will only be a -14.0% decline in hardware, a decrease in revenue by only -19.3%, and a decrease in software sales by -17.4% they will have any of following announcement (maybe more than one of the following):
Announce any of the following games
Mario Party iteration
Metroid Prime 4
Nintendo World Champions NES Deluxe
SMBW DLC
DK (due to DKC in Universal & his presence in the movie)
Tomodachi
Rhythm Heaven
Remake of Kid Icarus (1986)
Mario & Sonic @ Paris Olympics 2024
Pokémon (small game)
Mario RPG 2 (why remake old RPG's if they weren't gonna add to them and test the waters)
Nintendogs
Flip Studio
Art Academy
Permanent Price Cuts ranging from $50-100 off on hardware & $30 on the majority of Nintendo licensed games. Starting June 30th 2024.
You see according to the average cost of a Switch and a game $300 and $60 respectively, there has to be price cuts because the earnings from just those two alone given their FY goals is ¥2,073.4b which is ¥722.4b more ¥ than expected. But if you drop the average cost of the Switch $50 (¥472,5b) and drop the price of the average game by $30 (¥651b) and increase the "other" category from the FY report by 18% (¥122.5b), we will be right at their Revenue goal at ¥1,350.27b.
Permanent Bundles for the Holiday Season
Since not every Nintendo licensed game will be at $30 *cough, cough TotK, SMBW, Pikmin 4, Legends Z-A, and other brand new titles*, they will package many of their games in a bundle with the Price Cut Switch. Meaning for $250 you get a V2 Switch, and a game.
Some bundles may be the following (digital and/or physical:
MK8D + booster course
SMO
TotK
SMBW
Shipping 3.4M units. Bringing the total to be 144.72M
Q2 FY'25 A consistent and constant stream of Nintendo licensed IP are released. Ship 2.7M units. Bringing the total to be 147.42M
Q3 FY'25 Bundles, Price drops, and a slew of games provide the Switch with its last solo holiday. Ship 5.6M units. Bringing the total to 153.02M
Q4 FY'25 They announce the Successor in January and provide a release date for April 3rd 2025. Legends Z-A releases and provides a huge boost for sales. Ship 1.8 units. March 31, 2025. They reach their goal of 154.82M surpassing the DS and becoming the #2 best selling console of all time worldwide. They will project their FY '25 goal at 25M (18M Successor, 7M Switch).
Regional Breakdown:
- JP 4.5M
- Americas 4.14M
- Europe 2.86M
- Other 2M
Q4 FY'26 The Legend of Zelda Movie releases in theaters.
Now seeing that they have a 13.5M hardware shipment goal, I am starting to think that even 165M is a bit low now. I will have to sit on this until the June Direct.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)
PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)
Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)
"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.