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If the current 30% yoy downward trend continues

5 million this year -> 33 million
3.5 million 2025 -> 36.5 million
2.5 million 2026 -> 39 million
1.7 million 2027 -> 40.7 million

It will scrape by 40 million either in 2026 or 2027. It will definitely fall short of XBox One sales.

GTA 6 could speed it up a bit as day 1 gamepass edition but that will cost MS a lot to get R* to agree to that. MS won't do it to boost console sales, but Gamepass needs help as well. The recent silence on gamepass numbers is deafening.