| shavenferret said: I can definitely see the Russians as wanting to reconsider the war if the summer offensive isn't met with a great success. Ukraine has had too much aid coming in. The artillery shells supplied and F-16s will be arriving soon. The Russians will really start the offensive very soon, and it's going to cost many lives. They have to capture a few major and several good sized cities for this war to be something that they might be able to win. |
The issue is even if Russia loses offensive capability, Putin has no shortage of Russian meat shields to throw at the frontline to maintain positions and for all of Russia's stupidity and tactical fuck ups during the war, their fortifications are one thing they've done good and extremely difficult for Ukraine to get through even in the best of times. Putin's survival likely depends on it too, he will fight to the very end and the only options for him are either taking all of Ukraine, maintaining the current positions until Ukraine surrenders them or he is physically forced out of everywhere.
Even though artillery is coming, it won't put Ukraine at an advantage against Russia's artillery production and artillery plus minefields are the core parts of maintaining the current lines, either there needs to be some massive technological leap in minefield removal technology or it's going to be pretty brutal for Ukraine to get by any of it...Which is why I start to think that the best option for Ukraine may not to be to go through it but to go round it via an invasion of Russia which rounds back into Ukraine but the West wouldn't have the stomach for such a move.
Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 27 April 2024
