Norion said:
The point I'm making is it did so well during those weeks last year that there's no way it's gonna be able to keep up enough to only be 10-15% down by the end of the year. How can it easily reach that amount on average for the rest of the year when it's sold less than that 12 out of the 15 weeks so far? There's nothing massive happening like the Mario film and TOTK releasing close together to boost sales for a few months like what happened last year. The 25% drop scenario is realistic though I wouldn't say it's a hard floor since reaching 3m will be tough. |
Yeah it did amazing last year which is why it was able to sell 3.95M in Japan alone and this year wont be able to match the 80k weeks it had in the summer (with a few +100k too). This year is still on the seesaw between good, bad, and meh.
First, if we want to understand how well the Switch will sell in Japan, it would be amazing if we can see how many purchased units go over seas. Because obviously they are being sent to other countries, Japan is at like 1 in 3 people have a Switch almost (rough estimate). China? India? maybe? Because that is one of the reasons it is still selling well in Japan, also because the yen has depreciated a lot in the past year. Meaning other countries money is worth more in Japan making items seem cheap.
Second, we need to understand what sells best in Japan. Monster Hunter, Shin Megami Tensei, Disgaea and Thousand Year Door. Those will keep the Switch alive and over 56k for the summer at the bare minimum. And then we have the holiday games which we'll learn about in the next Nintendo Direct. When do we think itll be? May?
I do agree -25% is realistic. I'm just setting another expectation for it since the YoY is still very close. Honestly it is very competitive to 2018 sales. ShadowLink93 has an amazing chart and 2024 actually ahead of 2018 in sales. Though the holiday is where 2024 will fail and 2018 will surpass. Like wow 2018 holiday sales were crazy, 100-300k each week, wow.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)
PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)
Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)
"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.