This was a devastating defeat for Putin today. Even though the vote in the US Senate is still ahead of us, due to the Democrat majority and the fact that several Republicans will support the bill anyway, this vote is all but a formality.
The implications cannot be entirely measured, yet, but they are for sure substantial. Both, the Ukraine bill but likely even more the bill to divert Russian funds to Ukraine will hurt Russia on a scale unseen. Aside from the irony that Russian money will be used to destroy Russian invaders, there is also another side effect. Many Russian oligarchs will silently blame Putin for this blunder (one of many). Usually Putin tried to compensate that kind of blows by giving those Oligarchs something in exchange, but the sheer volume will make this impossible. We are not talking about few peanuts but billions which are goon for good. Vladimir can hardly shrug that off and they will not forget this either. The tensions in the Putin systems will inevitably rise.
This outcome will have also a huge impact on the MAGA movement which obviously experienced a Waterloo-class defeat today. It will not upend them now, but it is clear that it will be generally considered a huge disappointment. Not few in MAGA movement are full blown isolationists and made it all about this. Trump might think that making this a loan makes a difference but the truth is nobody gives a F. It will be anyway mostly forgiven and paid with Russian money. Nobody cares. Trump obviously dropped the ball and they will not forget that. Surely, they will not vote for Biden, but they will not vote for the Republicans either.
What comes now is not only a huge moral boost for the Ukrainian defenders but also a substantial support in the coming weeks. The effects of the bill will need time to materialize but with the certainty of its arrival Ukraine will be able to finally stop rationing ammunition and start shooting back. This aid as well as the European support, which due to this delay has grown considerably as well, will give Ukrainian forces the edge to withstand the Russian onslaught and potentially even more. It is necessary to carefully plan the next steps and hammer out a strategy which will break the stalemate and bring the victory which was enshrined in the bill which passed the House. In short, it was a very good day.
