As ex-negotiator with #Russia in #Moldova & intl mediator in #Georgia, I see a number of problems with recent article on #Ukraine negotiations - from data interpretation & perceptions to causal effects. Reasons why Charap’s prior analysis was so criticized https://t.co/UyHXZvNOGJ
— Vlad Lupan (NY) 🇲🇩 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 (@VladLupan) April 16, 2024
3. As a Govt negotiator on Russian troops withdrawal (and 2 Transnistrian conflict commissions) I witnessed Russians use of lies in talks about their troop numbers, even when we knew they were briefed. Therefore taking Russian statements at face value always presents a problem.
— Vlad Lupan (NY) 🇲🇩 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 (@VladLupan) April 16, 2024
6. In that case some Western govts were concerned about getting to any agreement on conflict resolution & suspected that WE’re unrealistic when we signaled Russian use of misinformation during negotiations & pressured us. Knowledge of prior practices matter in negotiations.
— Vlad Lupan (NY) 🇲🇩 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 (@VladLupan) April 16, 2024
“Our public line is all about Israel’s right to defend itself,” said one senior European official. “But internally, there is a growing tension about support for Israel versus Ukraine.
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 17, 2024
“The Middle East is going to be volatile forever. But if Ukraine loses to Russia, that would be…
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