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— Aleksandar Djokic (Александар Джокич) (@polidemitolog) April 12, 2024
Democracy-dictatorship dynamic in international relations is determined by the potential power projection of the democratic power, in order to rein in the aggressiveness of dictatorial states.
During 2022 and into 2023, the US has signaled Putin that it can, but won't. This was done more or less successfully. The elite circles in Russia were really down by the end of the first war year (not at all because of the economy, but by decisiveness of the US).
— Aleksandar Djokic (Александар Джокич) (@polidemitolog) April 12, 2024
As things stand, Russian elite circles are more and more convinced that the US is not simply restraining itself, but that it can't rally political will to aid Ukraine, both domestically and among its allies abroad. This poor signaling doesn't prevent escalation, it motivates it.
— Aleksandar Djokic (Александар Джокич) (@polidemitolog) April 12, 2024
This time is no different. Russia stops at the finite line and it's now partially in a total war mode. The line is much farther than it was ten years ago. Where this line will be depends mostly on the US (we can bash the German chancellor all day long, but facts are facts).
— Aleksandar Djokic (Александар Джокич) (@polidemitolog) April 12, 2024
The main question isn't - should or can Russia be stopped, but exactly where geographically and politically it will have to be stopped. For Europe, the answer is the farther the better. In Washington, this line gets blurry. How far is far enough, how much resources to invest?
— Aleksandar Djokic (Александар Джокич) (@polidemitolog) April 12, 2024
Biden's administration has gotten so far ahead in the escalation calculation that it's forgotten that the aforementioned finite line is constantly shifting, this time in favor of Russia. This is the moment where being overly cautious is producing the opposite, escalatory result.
— Aleksandar Djokic (Александар Джокич) (@polidemitolog) April 12, 2024
The divided US has to find a way to barely function, as its capabilities are tremendous. Europe must prepare to be able to survive without the US, but that's a long-term goal and a different topic.
— Aleksandar Djokic (Александар Джокич) (@polidemitolog) April 12, 2024
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