Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[Ryuu96]

Biggerboat1 said:

Ryuu96 said:

Yeah, what if they stop attacking and Biden loses anyway?

Tbh I still think Biden wins, I believe women will come out strong against Republicans this election thanks to them attacking abortion, along with black voters likely largely going to Biden and Trump in 2024 is weaker than Trump in 2020, he is the incumbent who lost, a loser, there are silent Republicans who will still vote for him though because "Dems bad!" but I think Trump's fanbase is slowly shrinking to just the craziest of the bunch.

Democrats have also been overperforming in special elections, I think Dems take back House and control Presidency.

My fear is that Democrats over performance in these special elections are a bit of a red herring. Generally the people who vote in those have an interest in actual politics and policy, which definitely skews heavily to Dems. Let's face it, most of MAGA don't have a clue about policy & are likely oblivious to the existence of these special elections.

They'll unfortunately be all too aware of the Presidential election though... It's kinda like the Superbowl or World Cup final, you get people watching that otherwise have no clue or interest in the sport.

I hope I'm wrong.

Biden is also playing a dangerous game with the Israel situ. There are already a bunch of progressive commentators (Krystal Ball & Ana Kasparian spring to mind) coming out saying that they just can't vote for Biden, for green-lighting what they perceive to be a genocide.

Maybe, I'm not sure which way special elections tend to lean in terms of turnout but mostly pointing out how the polls have completely underestimated Democrats lately and some of them make absolutely no sense, like Trump somehow getting 20-30% of black voters which would be more than double his 2020 %, I also think the women voting % in polls is skewing way too higher in favour of Trump.

Issues we've seen so far is lower turnout on Republicans side, annoyance at Republicans for blocking the border bills and women enraged about Roe vs Wade. I do agree that Biden is being reckless with Israel situation and I hate how much Biden is supporting Netanyahu but I don't believe it will have much of an affect on the election. I also don't expect Ukraine to have much sway on voting. Biden should focus on improving things in Gaza though.

MAGA don't have a clue about policy but you'd think given their previous history they'd just vote Republican anyway.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 08 April 2024