But last month the Financial Times reported the Biden Administration had urged Ukraine to halt its campaign targeting Russian refineries and warned that "the drone strikes risk driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation."
U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith said Tuesday that "in terms of actually going after targets inside Russia, that is something that the United States is not particularly supportive of." State Department spokesman Matthew Miller declined last week "to speak to specific conversations" regarding the Russian refineries. But he said "it has always been our position since the outset of this war that we do not encourage or support Ukraine taking strikes outside its own territory."
So Ukraine has to suffer attacks on its territory, but it can't hit back at its aggressor? Striking Russian air bases and drone facilities have obvious military value, and Russia's refineries obviously help to fuel and finance the Kremlin's war machine. Between Feb. 24, 2022, and January 2024, Russia has damaged or destroyed some $9 billion in Ukrainian energy infrastructure, according to the Kyiv School of Economics.
Ukraine's strikes have disrupted between 10% and 14% of Russia's refinery capacity. British defense intelligence notes that "depending on the extent of the damage, major repairs could take considerable time and expense." Russia will also have to deploy air defenses to protect its refineries.
Ukraine's goal with the strikes is to complicate Russia's efforts to fuel its troops. S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates that in May 2022 Russia's military campaign was consuming nearly 6% of domestic diesel output.
Sanctions have created spare refining capacity in Belarus, but Russia may have to reconfigure the routes it uses to get fuel to the front. Vladimir Putin will prioritize filling tanks over Russians' cars, and the refinery attacks will likely cause local fuel disruptions that bring the war home to Russians.
Ukraine's strikes on Russia won't decide the war's outcome, but they are important as Ukraine's dwindling ammo and air defenses limit other options. While Mr. Putin continues to escalate, the White House frets about the Russian response to any perceived escalation. The bigger geopolitical risk is what will happen if Ukraine falls to Russian aggression. If the U.S. won't offer more arms, the least it can do is get out of Ukraine's way.
Biden Tells Ukraine Not to Hit Russia - WSJ
Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 06 April 2024
