The first signs of international unease over Ukraine’s air offensive emerged in late March, with the Financial Times reporting US officials had urged Ukraine to halt drone strikes on Russian refineries amid concerns about global oil prices and possible retaliation. Days later, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed the US reaction to Ukraine’s airstrikes was “not positive,” but stressed Ukraine would not accept limitations on the use of domestically-produced weapons. “We used our drones. Nobody can say to us you can’t,” he commented.
Ukraine’s other key allies have yet to voice similar concerns over drone strikes inside Russia. This apparent split was on display during US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s April 2 visit to Paris. While Blinken reiterated that the US has “neither supported nor enabled strikes by Ukraine outside its territory,” French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné struck a different note. “The Ukrainian people are acting in self-defense and we consider that Russia is the aggressor,” he commented. “In such circumstances, there is hardly anything else to say. I think you understood me.”
Since Ukraine is restricted from employing Western-provided weapons against targets inside Russia, the production of long-range drones has become a top priority for Kyiv. This has led to a surge in investment and a spike in output. Drones are significantly cheaper to produce in large quantities than long-range missiles and require less infrastructure.
Ukraine’s partners have also backed Kyiv’s focus on drone warfare. In January 2024, the United Kingdom pledged to spend at least $250 million to rapidly procure, produce, and deliver 1000 one-way attack drones to Ukraine. Although precise details regarding Ukraine’s drone stockpile remain undisclosed, the rhetoric of Ukrainian senior officials and the ongoing strikes suggest the current bombing campaign inside Russia is likely to continue gaining momentum.
In the military sphere, the past three months of attacks have confirmed that Russia’s oil facilities are inadequately defended. Russian demand for air defense systems already appears to be growing in response, with indications including delays in delivering promised systems to India. Further Ukrainian drone attacks might compel Moscow to redeploy existing air defense systems to safeguard refineries. This could potentially create opportunities for Ukraine to strike other high-value targets inside Russia and in occupied Ukrainian regions.
If Ukraine can mass produce drones and keep bombing these oil refineries, Russia will be forced to make a decision of moving AD, if they move AD away from the frontline or airbases, Ukraine can then swap to attacking those locations, I hope this drone campaign keeps up and Ukraine ignores everyone moaning about it.
Hope the UK's "1000" drones don't have dumb restrictions on them as well for use only inside of Ukraine.
