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Bolton advises that Putin is waiting to see how the 2024 presidential election plays out, as a Trump win will be very beneficial for Putin. Trump is already influencing politics by making the senate and congress not want to help ukraine. However, the financial maven and ubergenuis has indicated that he'll support a loan for ukraine so this may be the only aid that could be given if Trump wins.

I'm thinking that the various trials that Trump is facing will decide whether or not he will become the next president.
Anyway, here is bolton's take on this and he doesn't spell it all out like im doing.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-may-eyeing-ceasefire-ukraine-after-us-election-john-bolton-1884398