Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or Neither? (March 2024 Update Poll)

[Shtinamin_]

XtremeBG said:

Shtinamin_ said:

True it was never specified. But it had signs of shipped given they have the same number that I have for shipped. I have it at 141.13 as of Feb 28, 2023. Official at 138.50 as of Feb 28, 2023. @archbrix on VGChartz we use sold. If you use shipped please specify. Thanks :)

And true it was never set in FY, it was just set to end of the year, or now (with the 141M being now). I had a post a bit earlier on this forum (I think) that didn’t use the FY, and also used the end of 2024.

I enjoy your realistic approach. I try to be realistic as well, but I also add my own optimism.

When the successor launch we should start seeing price cuts for the Switch and the ROTW should see a surge in purchases. 

Note: Why are people always trying to start fights on the internet and attacking people. Especially in something as silly as console prediction sales.

There is no problem with using the shipment numbers. Go ahead. But point that those are shipped, and in case its for Fiscal year point it out. (for the guy that doesn't). Also he wrote 2023. This mean by end of 2023, so the shipped units then were 139M. not 141M. Also the last official worldwide number announced from Nintendo of the shipments is 139M till end of 2023. I think we should use that, cuz this is the last official number we have for the time being. When the Jan-march quarter shipments numbers are out than we should use those up to date numbers of course.

Admirations for going out and saying you add your own optimism. This is the thing most of the people are missing to acknowledge when they do their predictions, I am talking mostly about the early years here, of course the last year when Switch passed the 120-130M it's looking more normal to say something like 160M. But in the first three years, or even of the peak 2020 year, where Switch wasn't even at 100M, to say it's becoming the best selling console or passing 160 or even 180M is pure gambling. Of course you can speculate, and say what it's possible but there were people back then (from launch period to like 2020) swearing it (like it's 100% lock) that it will become the most selling console and it's reaching 160 or even 180M. (Yes as of now it's possible to reach 160M however this does not make a 160-180M prediction back in 2020 realistic or even adequate. We didn't know back then of things like COVID coming and possibly boosting sales more, things like prolonging the generation to a full 8 years if for real the successor is launching 2025, things like all the good software the system got after those first years, things like the next consoles of SONY/MS, (and yes I still think there is connection between how they perform and the Switch) and also if Nintendo won't cut it's life prematurely like the DS for example.). Of course everyone can make some logic and can defend a theory about this type of shots so far ahead, but again to shoot at 160 or 180M, when you are half or even less than half there (or even little after the half point) it's pure gambling. That is not how the things work. This I am saying based on the history of sales on every other console. Anomaly consoles sales pace like Game Boy for example (not the numbers, but it's sales pace over the years) is exception. Switch sales pace is maybe the third anomaly in consoles after the Game Boy and the PS2. That is why I think most of the optimistic opinions are just a wishful that may got right and not so an adequate predictions that came right. (Note: I am talking about those excluding those after Switch came in the 120/130M territory cuz by then the Switch proved it's ground and the higher numbers such as 160M weren't so far ahead or in a uncertain territory).

The price cuts are still up for debate, cuz in the latter years, the normal thing became to sell the console at the same price until you can, and not so to price cut, to make it more available for the masses, and to sell more units in the end. But we will see. Price cut will for sure help it greatly.

Also I agree about the fight and attacks on the internet, everyone has opinion. It's opinion does not have to be targeted, or even given a label. Everyone can have different thinking or looking from other side on the things. For example I got wrong with the PS4 lifetime predictions (like many here) and Sony did the same thing as PS3 in it's latest years, as opposite to what they did with PS1 and PS2 (what I thought they may with the PS4 as well). With having a look at other's console's latter years from the last decade I am more conservative with the Switch, because of that (and looking at how many consoles have reached numbers above 120M I can say not only more conservative but more adequate in the predictions too.) To go from 60 to 80 to 100M is way more easier than is to from 100 to 120 to 140 to 160M. Systems like Wii, PS4, DS and PS2 proved that. With the sales pace Wii had before it died, everyone would though Wii can reach 120M and can't die so quickly, reaching 80 and 90M so fast, and then 10M it's dead. Selling 18M nearing 100M, and Selling 14M  the next year, passing 100M everyone would expect from PS4 to at least get to 130M, some even 140M. It died way sooner and quicker, not reaching even 120M. Everyone could've swear back in 2010.2011 DS is beating the hell out of the PS2, and no one expected, going from 20M year passing 140M not reaching even 155M 2 years later. With PS2 selling like hotcakes and becoming the most selling console, selling 6M and 4M in the last 2 years everyone in 2011/2012 would expect PS2 to break 160M and even maybe reaching 170M. And Sony killed it maybe earlier than needed (cuz with 4M year it surely could sell at least 5M more the next 2 years). What I am trying to say here, is that the territory of the sales after 100M and especially after 120M are way more unpredictable, way more slippery and easy for a console to die, than those of the more traditional ones that most of the other consoles have been through out the years such as 50-60-80-100M. Therefore the percent of someone getting a prediction right is way more smaller and it's a lot more gambling and hard to be on point, than it is with consoles such as 3DS, PS3, XBOX 360, PSP, XB1, and to some extend even Wii and PS1.

Agreed. Early console life predictions are rather chaotic and aren't really based on anything expect their predecessor, and hardware specifications.

Personally, I was one of those (I wasn't on VGChartz in the Switch's early life, but I was a Switch sales follower since day one) who thought that the Switch had the capabilities to reach past the PS4, hence why I have been doing my best to keep track of sales numbers and official total shipped (even my best isn't perfect though haha). I believed that it could surpass the PS4 due to what the hardware could do (tv, table, handheld, I also expected VR and AR guess I was wrong about that haha), and honestly just how good BotW was. It set the bar for what a Nintendo game could be. It showed that they cared (at least just a little bit). And I stuck with my early prediction all the way and even had to bump up the prediction number a couple of times (as you can see at the bottom).

The only argument I can see for no price cuts (even after the successor launches) is that their first game BotW is still $60. There may be the occasional -$10 or even -$20 for a holiday or event, but nothing permanent. So if they haven't dropped the price of an 8 year old game, why would they drop the price of their 8 year old console. And that is where a part of my optimism comes in. I think they will, at least once the successor launches.