Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or Neither? (March 2024 Update Poll)

[Shtinamin_]

XtremeBG said:

Shtinamin_ said:

They are using shipped, not sold.

archbrix said:

Yeah, I should probably clarify that when I lay out predictions I'm always talking "shipped" numbers as well.  It's official data from the company itself, not estimates, and every shipped unit will ultimately result in a sold unit.  I tend to stick to fiscal years as opposed to calendar years as well when referring to dates.

RolStoppable said:

The numbers of the guy you quoted are shipment numbers by the end of the given fiscal year, so "2023" means "shipments by the end of March 2024."

As for your approach, eventually every shipped unit will be sold, so there's nothing speaking against talking about shipped numbers to begin with.

So when you expect around 10m of sell-through in calendar year 2024, shipments will reach 149m by December 2024. Another ~5m in 2025 make it 154m, so in your outlook - that typically tends to be on the pessimistic side for Switch - beating the DS is already a given when we include the post-2025 sales (which we should).

He never pointed out in his comment that its about shipment numbers, nor that the years he pointed are fiscal years. Either way as you said, every shipped unit is sold, so shipped or sold that are the numbers I think Switch can do (particular for 2025 successor's launch). Whether will finish at 155M or 160M or pass it, depends much on what and how Nintendo will aproach both the new console and the old one in that key period. Whether there will be price cuts or no, bundles, new models even maybe, and the price and appeal of the new console as well.

@RolStoppable Also I don't agree that my outlook is typically pessimistic. It's realistic at the time I give it with the data I have. If sometimes Switch outperformers, that does not make my outlook pessimistic.

True it was never specified. But it had signs of shipped given they have the same number that I have for shipped. I have it at 141.13 as of Feb 28, 2023. Official at 138.50 as of Feb 28, 2023. @archbrix on VGChartz we use sold. If you use shipped please specify. Thanks :)

And true it was never set in FY, it was just set to end of the year, or now (with the 141M being now). I had a post a bit earlier on this forum (I think) that didn’t use the FY, and also used the end of 2024.

I enjoy your realistic approach. I try to be realistic as well, but I also add my own optimism.

When the successor launch we should start seeing price cuts for the Switch and the ROTW should see a surge in purchases. 

Note: Why are people always trying to start fights on the internet and attacking people. Especially in something as silly as console prediction sales.