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archbrix on 27 March 2024
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RolStoppable said:
XtremeBG said:

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here, and be on point with the numbers .. The switch was at 136M sold as of dec 31st.

It will probably do around 10M for 2024. This is making it 146M at end of 2024.

2025 will be around 5M. So ~151M. It really depends here if and when exactly they are launching switch 2 and also if they will pricecut the switch 1. Cuz with pricecut I can see the Switch reaching few millions more than what it can without pricecut (around 155M I think). So it's really 50/50 territorry here. For 160M they need to put the lite model at 199$ and the oled at 299$ with the normal one going for 249$. Also they need Switch 2 releasing spring 2025 at the earliest. of course summer or even fall of 2025, will greatly help. And even than 160M is a tough call.

The numbers of the guy you quoted are shipment numbers by the end of the given fiscal year, so "2023" means "shipments by the end of March 2024."

As for your approach, eventually every shipped unit will be sold, so there's nothing speaking against talking about shipped numbers to begin with.

So when you expect around 10m of sell-through in calendar year 2024, shipments will reach 149m by December 2024. Another ~5m in 2025 make it 154m, so in your outlook - that typically tends to be on the pessimistic side for Switch - beating the DS is already a given when we include the post-2025 sales (which we should).

Yeah, I should probably clarify that when I lay out predictions I'm always talking "shipped" numbers as well.  It's official data from the company itself, not estimates, and every shipped unit will ultimately result in a sold unit.  I tend to stick to fiscal years as opposed to calendar years as well when referring to dates.