Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[Ryuu96]

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Ryuu96 said:

Yeah, I wouldn't underestimate Trump but...I don't see how he beats Biden at this moment in time, I think Dems have been overperforming lately as well in actual elections? Dobbs has really fired up women voters against Republicans and I don't see black support for Trump being anything decent either, or LGBTQ+ but as recent events have shown, Ukraine needs Republicans to lose House as well, not just Presidency.

I want Republicans to lose Senate too but it clearly isn't vital in regards to Ukraine aid specifically.

They will need to strongly outperform the current polls then if they want a chance to beat Trump, as he's leading in several swing states (most notably Georgia, Nevada and Michigan, where Trump has a fair lead) as well as nationwide. Those 37 Electoral Votes could very well be enough to flip the election in Trump's favor.

I've seen the polls but I'm not bothered by them at this stage, it's far too early in the election cycle to panic over them, besides that, I've also seen and read a lot over the years that polls in America have been fairly unreliable, in recent polls, they've been heavily called out as not making any sense and when it actually mattered, in recent elections, Democrats have been overperforming.

Not sure what the cause is, if the sampling needs updating or if Democrats simply aren't bothering to answer polls anymore.

18-29 year olds in 2020 were ~14.5% of the electorate (Catalist/VoteCast), so that’s ~23 million votes.

Biden won this group by 24.3 pts in 2020, which means it was roughly 62D-38R.

Let’s be generous and say polls have Biden+4 with this group. That would make it 52D-48R.

— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) March 14, 2024

With this poll’s margin among young voters (Trump+13 among a very similar age group, 18-34), that would mean it’s 56.5R-43.5R.

That means ~18.5% of young voters switched from Biden to Trump (~4.3M voters).

So if half actually voted in 2020, that’s ~2.15M newly MAGA young voters

— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) March 14, 2024

Also Robert Mann: "Biden got 57% of women in 2020. You’re telling me that, post-Dobbs, his support among that demo group will drop to 46? Not credible".

— Scablander 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 (@BoCampbell18) March 4, 2024

Fwiw, we recently fielded a large sample (>4,000 respondents) survey across the battlegrounds and and found Trump at 11% with Black voters. I don't know what is happening in these media polls, but we can't replicate it. https://t.co/RbSQ1ssiSV

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) March 12, 2024

Some of these polls are simply not making any sense and to be clear, I'm speaking mostly about the Biden vs Trump polls but even if they were accurate, it's still too early to panic over the Biden vs Trump national polls, we still have a long way to go and there's still a lot of undecided or not bothering to answer at this stage.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 14 March 2024