That depends on the US really. They can pull many levers to force Israel to accept a ceasefire. Israel keeps walking away from negotiations every time a deal is close and is hell bent on never allowing a two state solution, which is not acceptable to Hamas. Every time Israel finds another gotcha point, this time they want a list of all the captives that are still alive. (and proof I would guess) Which is very likely not easy to get for the Hamas leadership outside of Gaza after all the destruction Israel has wrought on Gaza. Plus they think it's a ploy to get intelligence.
But even if they got that, there will be another sticking point, and another. The war cabinet has made it clear they don't want a ceasefire, they want to go into Rafah and the want to keep occupying Gaza in full after ethnic cleansing the North part. They also don't want people to return North. Then you have even more radical elements already trying to start building settlements in Gaza.
As long as the US doesn't stop funding this genocidal madness, it's unlikely we get a ceasefire at all.
Palestinians hopeful for truce ‘drained’ as overnight attacks continue
People have their eyes and ears on the talks in Cairo and all the leaked reports of either progress or regression in the talks, but also on what’s going on on the ground – the overnight relentless attacks in central and northern Rafah city. And this has been the most draining part of what’s going on.
Meanwhile, over the past 12 hours, there have been about 92 people killed, including those who were killed while waiting for an aid truck.
‘Significant progress’ in Cairo talks for Gaza truce: Egypt TV
Mediators and Hamas officials have made “significant progress” towards a Gaza truce, Egyptian state-linked TV has reported as the talks in Cairo entered a second day. After weeks of diplomatic efforts, Egypt, Qatar and the United States have been scrambling to lock in a proposed six-week truce in the war between Israel and Hamas before Ramadan starts next week.
Al-Qahera News, linked to Egypt’s intelligence services, quoted an unnamed senior official as saying: “Egypt continues its intense efforts to reach a truce before Ramadan”, the Muslim fasting month which begins on March 10 or 11. “There has been significant progress in the negotiations,” the report said after the latest talks began Sunday in Cairo, without Israeli representation.
Israel has, however, not sent its delegation to the talks.
Netanyahu playing ‘hardball’ in truce talks – Analyst
Rami Khouri, a distinguished fellow at the American University of Beirut, has described Netanyahu’s latest demand for a list of captives from Hamas as a “hardball” and said the path to secure a lasting ceasefire in Gaza remained “tough”.
“In the first ceasefire, Hamas did not provide a list of names. The list is a new demand and appears not to be a government demand but Netanyahu’s own demand that he made at the last minute,” Khouri told Al Jazeera.
Hamas outside of Gaza leading negotiations as leadership inside Gaza ‘isolated’
Hassan Barari, a political analyst based in Qatar, said the Hamas leadership outside of the Gaza Strip was”entitled” to negotiate a ceasefire as the Hamas officials inside the blockaded territory were isolated with almost zero communication.
“Communication is almost broken because everything is censored and the Hamas leaders inside Gaza are almost isolated from the world simply because of the continuous bombardment,” he said. “But the political leadership outside Gaza are entitled to come up with a deal if [it] meets the demands of the people inside. We know the broad lines of the agreement from Hamas’s perspective is a ceasefire.
“If the leadership of Qatar and Egypt can reach a deal with the Israelis on these issues [exchange of prisoners and delivery of humanitarian aid], then I think the [Hamas leadership] inside Gaza will be happy simply because they cannot take part in these negotiations – they have to rely on the external leadership.”
Barari also said Hamas was refusing to give Israel the names of captives in the Gaza Strip because it regarded this as intelligence.
“Probably Hamas will provide the information later on if there is a deal looming. But at this point is it difficult for Hamas to give [the Israelis] these details because they will interpret this – in the case, a deal is not reached – as providing them with intelligence necessary for them.”
Hamas official says Cairo talks will go on despite Israel’s absence: Reuters
A Hamas official has said that the Palestinian group is pressing on with talks on securing a truce in Gaza despite Israel’s decision not to attend them. “Talks in Cairo continue for the second day regardless of whether the occupation’s delegation is present in Egypt,” the Hamas official told the Reuters news agency.
The talks, which began on Sunday in Cairo, are billed as a final hurdle to establish the first extended truce of the five-month-old war, in time for the Ramadan Muslim fasting month which is expected to begin on Sunday. Reports said earlier that Israel declined to attend the negotiations because Hamas had refused its request for a list of names of all hostages it is holding that are still alive.
Delegations from Egypt, Qatar and the US are taking part in the talks as mediators.
Yet as the stumbling block seems to be Netanyahu personally this time, and Gantz went behind his back for talks in the US, there is a glimmer of hope.
Although analysts think he went there to get more military assistance :/
Gantz will likely ask for military assistance from US, analyst says
Omar Ashour, a professor of security and military studies at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, says Benny Gantz during his visit to the US will likely ask for more military assistance to bolster Israel’s ammunition stockpiles.
“If some sort of a truce happens or was successful, I think what we will see is a bit more of reconstruction of forces, repairing of some of the armoured vehicles and also rearming them to be much more effective in the next round,” Ashour told Al Jazeera.
The visit by Gantz, who is expected to meet senior US administration officials, comes as US Vice President Harris called for an “immediate” pause in the fighting.
The remarks from Harris didn't go over well in Israel
‘It’s time to destroy Hamas, Kamala’: Israeli minister
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has called on to “destroy” Harris hours after she demanded “immediate” ceasefire. “It’s time to destroy Hamas, Kamala,” Ben-Gvir posted on X on Monday before a meeting between the US vice president and Israeli war cabinet minister Benny Gantz.
Israel has been running a brutal military campaign since October 7, when the Palestinian Hamas group carried out a deadly attack inside Israel. Israel has refused to cease fire saying it wants total defeat of Hamas.
Netanyahu is reportedly annoyed by Gantz’s visit to the US without his approval.
Harris bluntly called out Israel on Sunday for not doing enough to ease a “humanitarian catastrophe” in Gaza. “People in Gaza are starving. The conditions are inhumane and our common humanity compels us to act,” said Harris who also appeared to refute the Israeli narrative of the “flour massacre”.
It's a mess in Israel
Gantz’s US visit aims to ‘strengthen moderates’ in Israel: Report
The US administration’s decision to host war cabinet minister Benny Gantz is a calculated step aimed at “strengthening the moderate axis” in the Israeli government, according to a source speaking to the Haaretz newspaper. According to the source, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is upset about the visit, during which Gantz will meet US Vice President Kamala Harris.
“Any official trip abroad by a minister that is not private but rather in an official capacity requires approval from the prime minister,” the source reportedly said. Gantz arrived in the US on Sunday and is expected to hold meetings with other senior government officials in addition to Harris, such as National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.
Gantz’s National Unity party is known to be a counterweight to Netanyahu’s far-right allies.
Ben-Gvir is a threat to national security: Israeli opposition leader
The leader of the Yesh Atid party says Ben-Gvir cannot be trusted and should be immediately removed from his position. “The Minister of National Security is a threat to national security,” Yair Lapid wrote on X.
“You cannot trust him with sensitive material, you cannot trust him around intelligence personnel and you cannot trust him in the defence cabinet,” he said. “Any normal prime minister would have fired him this morning,” Lapid added.
Israeli security heads hold talks over Ramadan measures
Israel’s security services have held talks on the measures to be implemented for Muslims ahead of Ramadan next week, according to the Israeli army.
The military said on X that its chief of staff, the head of the Shin Bet intelligence service and the police commissioner held a joint situation assessment meeting overnight before the Muslim holy month in order to strengthen coordination and readiness among the bodies.
The statement said that the sides expressed the desire to allow freedom of worship for Muslims under security and safety restrictions.
Israeli meeting on Ramadan measures cancelled: Report
The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation has reported that a meeting between senior Israeli officials to discuss security preparation for Ramadan has been cancelled due to Netanyahu’s illness.
Netanyahu was expected to hold a discussion with Minister Ben-Gvir and officials in the Israeli Security Agency (Shin Bet) and the army on the issue of restrictions on Al-Aqsa Mosque during the Muslim holy month.
Families of Israeli captives stage silent march at Knesset
The family members of the captives held by Hamas in Gaza have carried out a silent procession at the Israeli parliament to mark 150 days since their loved ones were abducted. The event began with the family members’ protest outside the Knesset building while counting together to 150, before entering the establishment to continue their demonstration inside, Haaretz newspaper reported.
The Israeli authorities say that about 130 people abducted by Hamas in the October 7 attack remain in Gaza, with an unclear number of deaths among them. More than 100 people were released from Hamas captivity during a pause in late November in exchange for Palestinian prisoners freed from Israeli jails.
It all hinges on Biden
Will Biden reconsider his unconditional support for Israel?
US President Joe Biden is facing a rebellion in his party over his support for Israel as it starves the people of Gaza. But could this force the Biden administration to reconsider its approach?
We speak to Matt Duss, former adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders, for his views.
