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For PS5 to beat the PS4 by a notable margin, it needed a longer life and 3 things to happen by or in 2024:

1. A permanent price drop.

2. GTA6 and Monster Hunter Wilds.

3. Decent 1st party true exclusives.

Contrary to my own expectations, none of these is happening. Unit costs aren't going down even after 4 years and a "slim" model. GTA6 and MHWilds (which would have helped sustaining strong sales in Japan) aren't coming til 2025. And the 1st party lineup is mostly cross-gen or available on PC. Helldivers 2 is a sleeper hit that is shaping into something unexpectedly huge, but it's also a day 1 PC release. Love it or hate it, more and more people are leaving consoles for PC.

And of course Sony's recent comments imply a shorter generation than most of us expected. I guess Sony just doesn't want MS to have a headstart like they did with Xbox 360. MS is likely going to transition as soon as 2026 because the Series XS is pretty much dying already.