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Ryuu96 on 08 February 2024
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Understanding the context is crucial. Putin perceives 2024 as a pivotal year, viewing it as a window of opportunity for Russia to potentially shift the dynamics of the war in Ukraine in its favor. He anticipates a temporary gap in Western military support, with ammunition production expected to ramp up only by early 2025. Concurrently, the U.S. election cycle might lead to a less decisive American geopolitical strategy towards supporting Kyiv, and the European Union, facing its own internal disagreements, is unlikely to compensate for this support on its own. Moreover, Ukraine could be grappling with significant internal political challenges, especially with the anticipated resignation of Zaluzhny.

In this scenario, Putin's immediate goal is to convince the West, particularly Washington, to dismiss Zelensky and to encourage a new, potentially more pliable Ukrainian government to enter negotiations with Russia (Putin thinks that this is how it works). However, Putin's aim for these negotiations is not to seek a tangible compromise but to halt Kyiv's military resistance, paving the way for what he sees as eventual capitulation (a regime friendly to Russia and all that follows).

Against this strategic backdrop, Putin badly needs to reach a Western audience. It is probable that during the interview, he will attempt to position himself as a friend to the American people, arguing that it is in the U.S.'s interest to cease its support for Ukraine. He is likely to brand himself as a peacemaker, contrasting his stance with that of the current U.S. administration, which he accuses of prolonging the conflict at Ukraine's expense. Thus, the interview is a platform for Putin to widen his access to American viewers and garner support for his narrative.