Xbox |OT|

[the-pi-guy]

shikamaru317 said:

You know, I think the thing that bothers me the most about this whole Xbox multiplatform release thing, is that I truly had hope for this generation. I really thought this was going to be the generation where Xbox started to turn things around after their abysmal performance in gen 8 with Xbox One. It seemed like all the pieces were lined up neatly:

• Much larger first party than last gen, from like 6 studios by 2017, up to 23 in 2021, up to 37 in 2023
• Much more enticing hardware, in everything from specs to visual design to controller to UI
• By far the best value proposition in all of gaming, Gamepass
• A big war chest of money that could be used for everything from future acquisitions, to moneyhatted exclusives, to day one gamepass deals
• No wasted focus on VR or Kinect, pulling 1st/2nd party development resources away from the core gaming experience

It really seemed like Xbox was going to be able to capitalize off of all of the above to gain marketshare on Sony throughout the generation, and be able to launch on near even footing with them next gen. If you had told me back in 2020 when Xbox Series launched that Xbox would basically be going 3rd party starting in 2024, I would have tried to have you committed to an insane asylum, because that is how crazy it would have sounded at the time. But lo and behold, year after year, basically everything that could have gone wrong, has gone wrong. 

• Series S was a bad idea right from the start. The idea had promise on paper, a cheap entry level console that would play all the same games, just at a lower resolution. But the reality was from what it appeared to be on paper, specs were so low that downgrades beyond mere resolution were required on many games, developers hated porting to it because the specs were just too low. 
• Xbox took far too long to fix their production issues in the wake of Covid, they could have used the early gen as an opportunity to gain ground on PS5, but instead they continually allowed Sony to produce more hardware than them. 
• They relied far too heavily on Series S production early gen, flooding the market with the weaker console that also just so happened to be all digital, turned out to be a colossal error of judgment, Xbox Series S production was so high that they managed to drive Xbox Series software sales up to a rumored 80+%, which has had a disastrous effect on Xbox's retail presence, with retailers now delisting physical Xbox games and removing Xbox shelf space. They should have learned from Sony, who only produced roughly 20% of their total PS5 units as the all-digital model, and have been able to retain a significant number of physical software sales and higher retail presence
• Xbox 1st party output has been pretty poor, in spite of the much larger 1st party. Between Covid issues, and numerous development issues cropping up at studios like Playground, The Initiative, and Undead Labs, studios that Xbox acquired in 2018 and 2019, still have yet to release an Xbox exclusive as of 2024, and now that Xbox is going at least partly multiplatform, some of them likely never will. 
• Halo Infinite's launch was pretty disastrous, the multiplayer just wasn't ready for release in 2021 and the game should have been delayed into 2022.
• Redfall was a complete disaster that should have been delayed
• Starfield's launch didn't go particularly well either, a game that should have been a system seller, ended up getting review bombed by both users and critics, and barely moved Xbox hardware. 
• Frankly, buying Activision was a mistake. That $80+b spend seems to have exacerbated Xbox's money troubles and forced this multiplatform decision to happen much earlier than it should have. They spent all that money on an acquisition they knew would grand them no exclusives, and then decided to do away with exclusives all-together to pay for the acquisition. 
• Xbox never put in the work they needed to do to grow Xbox into new and emerging markets. PS5 is available officially in at least 20 more countries than Xbox, and Xbox has even managed to lose markets they held against playstation in past generations. 

It just seems like nothing has gone right for Xbox 3 years straight. And now we have come to what might as well be the end, because ones the floodgates of multiplatform releases are open, once that pandora's box is open, the bean counters at Microsoft will never allow them to be closed again. Xbox hardware is just not going to sell well without exclusives, and if the hardware doesn't move, developers will be even more hesitant to port to Xbox than they already are. It truly does feel like the end of Xbox as anything more than a 3rd party publisher.

Xbox is definitely not in a great place. 

Gamepass has struggled to reach their expectations for a while now.

Software has had some misfires with Redfall, Starfield ended up being a little disappointing instead of generation defining. 

MS has been getting outsold, sometimes 2:1 or worse even in places. Despite being cheaper than the competition. Series X was $350 at one point, Series S had a few promotions where it was available for under $200. Yet it hasn't really mattered.  

But I still think Xbox is doing okay. I believe things will be alright. 

They still have great hardware, there's no indication that will change.

They still have great software teams, and there's no indication that will change.

And hopefully Gamepass will continue to be great.

Maybe in a week, we'll find out things are terrible. But I think as time goes on, people will calm down. And maybe things will turn out better than people expect.