SvennoJ said:
The ICJ can undermine America's support, isolate the US in its support for the ongoing genocide. Canada, Europe, Australia will have to rethink their stance on supporting Israel and hopefully actually come with sanctions, at least stopping trading arms with Israel. The ICJ can also undermine support in Israel and amplify voices for reform from within.
A regional war however will amplify America's support, especially with elections coming up. Instead of genocide Joe it would be Biden defending the USA and its interests against the axis of evil, defending the world economy (in his words of course). Europe has plenty interests in the Middle East as well. It's still all about the oil. Waning off Russian gas exports is still going to take until 2027...
The calculations, based on data from the European gas transmission group Entsog and Gazprom's daily reports on gas transit via Ukraine, showed that average daily pipeline exports of Russian gas to Europe declined to 77.6 million cubic metres (mcm) in 2023 from 174.8 mcm in 2022.Jan 2, 2024
In April 2022, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said "the era of Russian fossil fuels in Europe will come to an end". On 18 May 2022, the European Union published plans to end its reliance on Russian oil, natural gas and coal by 2027.
And to offset waning off Russian oil and gas, imports shifted more to the Middle East... Weakening Israel with sanctions goes against Europe's interest in keeping the status quo in the Middle East. As much as Israel is disrupting regional stability, they're still one of the biggest military force there to keep Iran and its proxies in check. (and most willing to do so)
It's a cynical take, but Israel is not listening to the US and the US isn't willing to draw any lines in the sand against Israel. In that situation a regional war will only make things worse for the Palestinians in Gaza as they will become background noise next to a much wider conflict.
In fact all actors in the Middle East are digging in to their failed policies that led to Oct 7
https://tcf.org/content/commentary/time-to-discard-the-bad-policy-that-enabled-the-gaza-war/
If the United States were interested and able to make long-term policy, pursuing its core values and national interests beyond four-year presidential election cycles, then American leadership could pursue a major course correction in the Middle East. A subsequent Century International commentary will outline the elements of a useful, and viable, policy course correction in more detail. But a serious fundamental policy shift would mean a reevaluation of misguided strategic priorities, and an embrace of a rights-based framework for regional policy.
So far, no such rethink is taking place. To the contrary, all the major powers, from the United States to Israel, and Saudi Arabia to Iran, are committing to existing stratagems. This is bad news for ordinary people across the region; for the long-term peace and security of the Middle East; and for the United States’ tenure as the region’s indispensable power.
The risk of regional conflict is high and should be taken seriously— even in the event of a lasting ceasefire in Gaza, the underlying tensions create incentives for future violent escalations. Iran and its allies could all too easily cross an American red line that they assume Washington will not uphold. Equally, Israel could do something so egregious in Gaza that the Axis of Resistance feels compelled to escalate beyond its current, already serious pace of attacks and responses.
It’s increasingly clear that Middle Eastern powers and the United States are at risk of learning the wrong lessons from October 7 and its aftermath. In the region, Israel and the Gulf monarchies might try to pursue the same general strategy as before. The Axis of Resistance and even Hamas might conclude that even military disasters consolidate their power bases. In the United States, unless America is embroiled in a regional war, the issues of Gaza and the entire U.S. approach to the Middle East could be distant memories once the 2024 presidential campaign gets underway.
I think a full scale regional war breaking out will only make things worse, not only for Gaza but for people across the region. Reform is desperately needed, yet full scale war isn't going to bring it.
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