| zeldaring said: Let's hope ICJ will do something but something tells me all them are in US and and isreal pocket. Hoping for peace but it seems isreal goal is erasing palestine and it's people with us backing. |
The ICJ can unfortunately dismiss the case on technical details. The biggest defense Israel has is getting the case dismissed saying South Africa didn't exhaust all the steps to first try to settle its dispute with Israel outside the court. Which is of course nothing but a delay tactic.
If the case doesn't get thrown out, it is expected that provisional measures will be granted. That's what is first asked of the court, for an injunction to freeze hostilities to then investigate and get to the bottom of the situation. An actual verdict will take many years.
However with a lot of political pressure, it is also possible that those provisional measures again get downgraded to "must allow more humanitarian access" and "reduce the bombing", same as the finally approved resolution that went through at the UNSC on Dec 22nd:
In the resolution, the Security Council reaffirmed the obligations of the parties to the conflict under international humanitarian law, especially regarding the protection of civilians and civilian objects, safety of humanitarian personnel, and the provision of humanitarian assistance.
That led to nothing and the ICJ repeating that won't lead to anything either. Cease hostilities is what is needed and what South Africa is asking for.
South Africa is specifically requesting Israel to “halt all military attacks that constitute or give rise to violations of the Genocide Convention,” according to their court application. They also ask that Israel “cease killing and causing serious mental and bodily harm to Palestinian people in Gaza” and facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid. The court has the power to order Israel to comply with all of South Africa’s requests, or it may only issue some orders.
The ICJ must also be thinking about its own reputation. Coming off too weak or dismissing the case with the live evidence playing out will expose the court to just being there as a tool for 'West'. The validity of international law is also on trial. And they must also know how close the Middle East is to a full scale war breaking out over the atrocities playing out in Gaza. Dismissing the case or repeating the weak UNSC resolution will bring regional escalation closer again.
I hope the ICJ gives a strong signal as that's the only thing that will make countries reconsider standing behind Israel (for complicity in genocide) and will reduce tensions a bit in the Middle East, seeing that the ICJ is not just there to protect Israel and the US.
Yet it's fully possible the ICJ repeats the weak sauce of the UNSC, which will lead to nowhere good. The point of the genocide conventions is to prevent genocide. If the court doesn't classify this as genocidal acts than its basically saying that the genocide conventions are pointless.
https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.1_Convention%20on%20the%20Prevention%20and%20Punishment%20of%20the%20Crime%20of%20Genocide.pdf
Article II
In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:
a. Killing members of the group;
b. Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
c. Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
d. Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
e. Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.
Article III
The following acts shall be punishable:
a. Genocide;
b. Conspiracy to commit genocide;
c. Direct and public incitement to commit genocide;
d. Attempt to commit genocide;
e. Complicity in genocide.
2a, 2b, 2c are all in the news daily, as well as 3c. 2d is indirectly implied from the attacks on healthcare and deliberate starvation, as well as 3d based on the situation on the ground.
2e is what Putin got convicted on in the ICC
https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and
The ICJ also ordered Russia to cease hostilities while the case is ongoing https://www.icj-cij.org/case/182
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/16/un-international-court-of-justice-orders-russia-to-halt-invasion-of-ukraine
But we all know nothing changed on the ground. Russia can keep going on its own and nobody dares to actually stop them. Israel won't stop either, but does rely on US and German weapon sales to keep going. The only way out is sanctions on weapon sales which will lead Israel to stop using their bombs and ammunition on Gaza as they know full well they have actual dangerous enemies to defend against.
3a will take years to actually get a conviction on, however with a strong signal that the ICJ will take this case seriously, 3e is what will make other countries rethink their support of Israel. Which mostly comes down to lawsuits as who will pay the bill, reparations for the destruction of Gaza. Which was already estimated at 50 billion at the end of November https://www.newarab.com/analysis/rebuilding-gaza-huge-cost-israels-devastating-war
Meanwhile hopefully more people in Israel get to know and realize what's actually happening in Gaza and put pressure on the government to stop the war.
The ICJ condemning Israel is too big to cover up
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