Could the Switch surpass the PS2 in sales?

[Shtinamin_]

Honestly, it is very up in the air. But here are some thoughts

1. NG releases in 2024.
   Switch will not surpass PS2 unless the price is lowered by $100 of each iteration.
2. NG releases in 2025
   Switch will be able to, if the NG is backwards compatible, and the Switch iterations are $100 off.
3. NG is counted as Switch sales, like how GBC sales were counted as GB sales
   Switch sales will be near 210M.
4. Switch doesn't receive drops in price. It will not surpass PS2 and will end up at 155M max.

Switch needs to sell *on average 11.5M units for 2 consecutive years  (Switch has at least 2 more decent years left until it crawls). That will be extremely difficult, especially if the NG releases sooner than later.
Nintendo stated that they will be supporting Switch to at least a minimum of March 31 2025. So we guarantee another year and 3 months of Switch hardware selling.
Nintendo has also stated that selling 15M for the year will be a challenge, but it looks like it will land at 14M (as long as Dec lands near 135M).
I think Nintendo will plan to sell 10M for the following year. So after that we will be near 148M sold as of March 31 2025. From there it will need to sell another 10.7M. Most consoles sell for 10 years, but usually Nintendo stops production of the older console 3 years after the new generation. So we could see Nintendo still producing Nintendo Switch until 2027 or 2028 (depending on a 2024 or 2025 release date).
So after March 2025 Nintendo needs to sell 10M units until 2027. That seems doable, especially if the price is reduced. But all of these dominoes have to fall in order for 159M+ units sold.

*it used to say that Switch needed to sell 11.5M units in 2 years, now that statement has been fixed to Switch needs to sell on average 11.5M units for 2 consecutive years

Last edited by Shtinamin_ - on 11 January 2024