Obviously it needs to launch this year. Switch sales had a great resurgence in the Spring and Summer thanks to TotK and perhaps the Mario movie, but in the Fall that died off. That cliff finally hit. Switch looks like it had a very weak holiday season.
Switch has finally hit saturation. I'd say a September release for next gen would be good. No reason to let the Switch drag out all the way until November. With no big AAA games coming this year there's nothing that's gonna boost sales unless they do price cuts.
At this point the release time is just down to if the new system is ready and when they can get a few million produced and shipped, is 3D Mario and Mario Kart ready, do third parties have some launch period titles ready to go, and when they figure out when all that will be ready announce it 4-5 months in advance with an in-detail look at it like 3 months in advance so people can start saving to buy the new system at launch.
I'd be surprised if they it launches later than September, maaaaaybe October. There's no reason 3D Mario and Mario Kart shouldn't already be pretty much good to go, and ya gotta think the system will pretty much be a straight update to the Switch so there's no reason R&D should be getting dragged out and holding back the system launch. Right now Nintendo should just be spending a few months making sure everything is good to go and picking a time to announce it and getting it out well before the holidays so they can have a launch boost plus a holiday boost.
Leaving it until 2025 would make no business sense and would just leave Nintendo with a VERY weak 2024, unless they are planning to drop the Switch early this year to like $150/$200/$250 which I very much doubt.
