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Indications were that Super Mario Wonder had not been hitting pre-order expectations in the UK. One of the big retailers actually offered it at 25% off for pre-order and it was massively advertised(I was getting targeted with it on sites like Metacritic) so likely it had been hugely overstocked. The week 1 sales were 62% down on Tears of the Kingdom, but I think it would have been crazy stocking it based on similar expectations.

If the ratio to Zelda holds out worldwide it will sell around 4m, which is not bad at all I think.