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Ryuu96 on 18 October 2023
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drkohler said:

>Ryuu96 said:

>It's just a raid..

I highly doubt that. Ukrania can try and use the same manoeuvres the Germans did rolling up the Maginot line in WWII. Russian stupidity now  seems to go hand in hand with French stupidity in WWII so getting to the western end of the Russian defence line is a key target. I think we'll see more of the same from Ukrania in the following days and weeks.

Just wouldn't get your hopes up, they've been probing the area for weeks, they could be just trying to panic the Russians, being a nuisance, looking for weaknesses, etc. But until they get heavy armour over, they aren't going to make a big push and pretty much every military blogger agrees it would be incredibly difficult to get heavy armour over.

I believe it has been floated in the past as a tactic but it's a very, very high risk, but potentially high reward tactic. At this moment I don't believe Ukraine has any heavy armour over and there's only around 50-70 Ukrainian troops there causing issues for the Russians. They probably have to push Russian artillery back a lot further before they either repair the Antonivsky Bridge (which Russia shot another Iskander missile at only a couple months ago) or ferry heavy equipment over.

ISW will not speculate on the scope and prospects of ongoing Ukrainian activity on the east bank of Kherson Oblast but does not assess that Ukrainian forces have created a bridgehead on the east bank of Kherson Oblast suitable for the further maneuver of sizeable mechanized forces at this time. The Antonivsky bridge, directly south of Kherson city, has up to 200 metres missing as a result of the continuing conflict, making a rebuild highly challenging.

It's funny how much panic 50-70 soldiers is causing the Russians though...I do agree that if Ukraine could get heavy armour over they'd probably rout Kherson Oblast, I doubt Russia has fortified it because of the natural river between them...But they need heavy armour over and they can't really do that yet with all the artillery that Russia still has.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 18 October 2023