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Machina said:

I went for max bet on Zelda because it's more mainstream. My hunch is BG3 is a bit too niche and PC-centric. I get the impression there are more dedicated Nintendo sites out there than PC ones, and their votes are less likely to be split (only really Wonder to compete with, and maybe a couple of them opting for Pikmin 4 vs a lot of competition for BG3 on PC sites). And non-aligned sites tend to be more console-centric too.

I agree with this 100%. I think the only reason people are even considering BG3 is because it came to consoles; if it had stayed on PC, it probably would have suffered the same fate as Half Life: Alyx.

So yeah, I think ZToK will get the the most awards, followed by BG3 (maybe); but the one I'm most curious about is actually Starfield, so far its critical reception has been almost identical to that of Death Stranding back in 2019, being a "love it or hate it" kinda game. Now, DS went on to win the most awards that year, winning over games with a much higher score, but then again, Death Stranding's wasn't competing with Zelda, so.. I guess we'll see.