Zelensky on another foreign trip. He says in Granada: "Ukraine's key priority, particularly as winter approaches, is to strengthen air defense. We have already laid the groundwork for new agreements with partners and look forward to their approval and implementation." https://t.co/DXKq7MosOA
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 5, 2023
Pavel Gubarev of self-proclaimed "people's governor" of Donetsk infamy and previously a part time, for-hire Father Frost. Last year he said that Ukrainians who didn't want to give in to their occupiers and become Russian should be killed. https://t.co/bzgG4NR46P
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 5, 2023
Turkey is preparing to host the third international gathering of national security advisers working to build support for a peace summit Ukraine wants to hold later this year, according to people familiar with the matter.
In August, the Saudi government invited national security and diplomatic advisers from Ukraine, several of Kyiv's key allies and others in the Group of 20 such as India, Brazil and China, for talks. Representatives from about 40 countries attended, including Sullivan and China's special envoy for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui.
Allies are eager for China to attend the next round of discussions but it is unclear if Beijing will send a representative, according to the people familiar with the plans.
South Africa was floated as a possible location for the next round of talks, but leaders there declined due to logistical considerations after recently hosting the BRICS summit.
Turkey to Host Third Gathering of Allies to Discuss Ukraine Peace in October - Bloomberg
The psychological and diplomatic implications will be just as damaging.
If Putin concludes he will face less US support for Kyiv in the future, his theory of victory — that he ultimately can crush Ukraine by outwaiting its Western backers — will seem vindicated. He will have even less incentive to make a decent peace.
The war in Ukraine has never been only about Ukraine. From day one, it has been a test of strength between those who defend and those who mean to destroy the existing international order. A downshift in US support will thus have global implications.
Countries that hope the US will fight to defend them against Chinese aggression will have to consider the fact that Washington won't even help another country defend itself against the far weaker Russia. The thesis that motivates Beijing and Moscow — that the democracies are decadent, dysfunctional and easily distracted — will seem to be confirmed.
Self-appointed "realists" in the West may argue that a collapse of US support for Ukraine is a blessing, because it allows Washington to focus monomaniacally on the threat to Taiwan. Leave aside, for a moment, the strategic absurdity of arguing that the best way to deter great-power aggression in the Pacific is to enable it in Europe. Politically speaking, it is very hard to conjure a scenario in which the US cannot muster the commitment to help Ukraine survive a real war and then somehow shifts into overdrive to prepare for a hypothetical one.
If US Stops Funding Ukraine Russia and China Will Divide the West - Bloomberg
