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Idas Said:

One of the documents from the FTC trial had some very interesting numbers (from 2021) about the correlation between Steam and Game Pass numbers.

For example:

Game
Steam (all time PCCU)
Steam (last 30 days PCCU)
Steam (last 24-hour PCCU)
Game Pass (console hours, last 6 months)
Game Pass (PC hours, last 6 months)
Control​
9,078​
4,800​
1,301​
5,259,599​
798,590​
Destiny 2​
292,314​
95,209​
61,790​
95,804,789​
N/A​
Children of Morta​
3,007​
841​
768​
296,100​
148,790​
Frostpunk​
29,195​
4,263​
4,263​
899,414​
524,301​
Dead by Daylight​
77,347​
56,338​
40,435​
25,503,224​
2,559,014​
DayZ​
45,398​
34,129​
29,710​
18,986,964​
N/A​
Sniper Elite 4​
14,918​
2,146​
1,568​
7,124,570​
N/A​
Crusader Kings III​
98,474​
23,992​
13,725​
N/A​
6,443,184​
Europa Universalis IV​
47,844​
24,596​
19,625​
N/A​
268,781​
Stellaris: Federations​
68,517​
57,250​
37,602​
460,406​
2,417,592​
Football Manager 2021​
93,775​
80,787​
64,110​
1,088,341​
109,751​
Moonlighter​
6,158​
786​
786​
325,626​
124,055​

Although one is about concurrent players and the other about number of hours, it's a very interesting comparison.

As you can see, games with good to very good Steam numbers can achieve huge to massive Game Pass numbers (Destiny, Dead by Deadlight. Football Manager or Crusader Kings 3).

But even games with low to normal Steam numbers can get big Game Pass numbers (Control, Sniper Elite 4 or Frostpunk).

Therefore, it doesn't seem like there is a direct correlation between the numbers of players on Steam and the success of a game on GP.