Predict the price for Switch 2

[zorg1000]

Soundwave said:

Nintendo's audience isn't primarily children anymore.

Let me say that again, their primary audience by actual demographic split is not children.

Now sure Nintendo will always make kids a priority ... but the "dirt cheap hardware!" was always byproduct of Nintendo's demographics being much different in the past.

This is the demographic split for the Switch in the US for example early in its product cycle (through October 2017):

83% is 16 or older (so basically not a child).

This spread is likely actually only going to get *even older* for Nintendo. The person who was say 11 years old and got a Switch in 2017 for example will be 18 years old (an adult) when the Switch 2 launches presumably in 2024. 

So you are going to have another wave of "Nintendo kids" who are graduating up into late teenage-dom and adulthood with the Switch 2, I've said this before but when this happens over and over again generation after generation, the block of "kids" gets outnumbered by adults because you have multi-generations of adults (people who are from the NES generation, SNES generation, N64 generation, GCN/GBA generation, Wii/DS, Wii U/3DS, and now even Switch who have become adults but still enjoy Nintendo products). 

Even for things like the Super Mario Movie, the demographic split for the opening weekend was 84% of the audience was over the age of 12 (so teenagers or adults). 

As such Nintendo can charge $399.99 relatively easily, they probably could get away with $449.99 even really. The bigger factor is going to be having a strong first 8-10 months of software (Mario Kart and new 3D Mario, Metroid Prime 4 cross-gen that sort of thing) and having good marketing. The hardware has to be appealling though ... so decent specs + something that doesn't look like a toy is probably a must. It should be a full generational leap beyond the current Switch, the other thing I think they'd be well advised for is to not bring down the screen size. The 3DS going back to a smaller screen after the DSi XL I think kind of hurt the system (though they were boxed in with the 3D screen probably being expensive). The rumors out there are the Switch 2 has an 8 inch display (these are rumors though) ... that would be an increase over the Switch OLED even, so that would be good. 

I don’t necessarily disagree with your overall point but I really think the data you’re using is flawed.

You said the Switch demographics split in that chart is through October 2017, so basically the first 8 months or roughly the ~10% . Are we sure the demographics of early adopters is the same as people buying a console in the following years? Same with the Mario movie, are the age groups that go to movies opening weekend the same that go in following weeks?