Predict the price for Switch 2

[Pemalite]

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Pemalite said:

I think matching the Xbox Series S price point of $299 US is a possibility... Just not on launch with the launch model.

But accounting for inflation, $399 US is more realistic, still undercuts the Playstation 5 and Xbox Series X $499 US, despite packing more components. (Screen, battery etc')

It's about what I expect, too.

Does anybody have an idea how much the Tegra Orin NX (the most likely choice for a Switch 2) would cost to Nintendo? Having that price would give us a good idea what the final price tag could be, as the other components are more or less a known quantity.

Well... nVidia will sell the Tegra Orin 16GB, the most likely equivalent chip to drop into the Switch for $599 USD.

The full chip aka... AGX Orin 64GB has 17 billion transistors on a 8nm Samsung process, which is Geforce 3060Ti/3070 die size, which is massive for a mobile chip... But that is not the chip the Switch will get.

Reducing the CPU cores to 2/3rds, cache to 2/3rds, halving the memory bus, halving the GPU, we could see some interesting scaling, the Geforce MX550 for example has a die size of 200mm2 (4.7~ Billion transistors) on a 12nm TSMC process and that is a GPU about as big as what the Tegra the Switch 2 would get.

Where-as the 3050Ti on Samsung 8nm process was also 200mm (8.7~ billion transistors.) and that sold for MSRP of $249 USD.
And 200mm2 is pretty cheap, especially as they are not on a leading-class node like 3/4nm from TSMC.

The Switch Tegra X1 is 118mm2, the revised Mariko was 100mm2.

For all intents I would expect the next chip to be roughly 150-180mm2 at a cost to Nintendo of around $50-$70 per chip... Obviously this is hypothesis and not based on a factual release as we don't yet know which *exact* chip Nintendo is going to use, thus we can only surmise based on what would be cost-effective.

We do know that, even after a year or two, nVidia was counting the Tegra X1 sales in the Switch in terms of "billions", so they were making some coin on what was a previously a low-selling chip.