Machiavellian said:
Yes, if ABK had to publish a meeting to leave the deal then yes the stock would take a hit. If ABK then publish a deal where Apple is purchasing them, their stock would jump just as much if not more. Stocks value go up and down so that is not a big worry especially since it can be a temporary thing. All the no shop and no Solicitation is gone because the deal has reach its termination point. ABK does not have to directly communicate to any suiter they are willing to sell, they already did so with MS. The suiters will come to them and right now in the gaming space its going to be a war on content. All interested players are looking for content and any new player like Apple or Google need a company at the size of ABK to spring into the market. I do not remember who approach who first. At the time Bobby was going though some stuff and I thought that it was Phil that threw out a life line and Bobby said how much you willing to invest. With everyone really interested in seeing ABK land somewhere, it really does not have to be with MS. The fact we have not heard about an extension to the deal well before this termination date of today suggest to me that ABK is seriously considering other options and when money like 70Billion is getting thrown around, anything could happen. |
Their value is right now $93 a share, if they were to abandon now it would likely drop to $75 a share, maybe lower.
If Activision-Blizzard says Apple is acquiring them, that is now another 6-12 months of regulatory scrutiny, uncertainty hurts market valuation, their stock's ceiling would be what Apple is offering them, not more, so Apple would have to offer $96 a share at minimum but their stock would not exceed $96 a share. But it likely wouldn't come close to that in the initial stages, people would likely sell off and then rebuy later, when Microsoft acquired ABK, their stock wasn't $90+ a share all throughout and there's little reason to assume it would with Apple when closure would be maybe a year away.
Activision already communicated with suitors during the best possible time to acquire them, if anything, $95 a share in today's environment would be a large overpayment for Activision-Blizzard so it makes it less likely some new company will come in wanting to beat that. I don't know why on Earth you think Google of all companies after the past few years would be interested in ABK or interested in spending that much on a single acquisition in a sector they barely give a damn about, Lol.
Apple? Doesn't need ABK. Microsoft has more than double the amount of cash that Apple has, Apple would need to heavily borrow or do stock options and when has Apple ever shown interest in the Console or PC gaming market? As for Mobile...Not like Apple needs help in the Mobile space, Lol. Meta already rejected ABK. Amazon has no interest.
Seriously, I see only Saudi Arabia as the one with the money to outbid Microsoft and the interest in the market.
Activision-Blizzard were shopping themselves and then came to Microsoft after other offers were refused.
Doesn't really mean anything that we're hearing about an extension only now, the termination date isn't going to kill the deal, they can still negotiate even after the date and they can add a "no-competition" clause as Tencent did when they entered talks to acquire Leyou, they entered a clause that Leyou couldn't negotiate with anyone else. They may have already been discussing for weeks, just because we heard it from Reuters now doesn't mean talks only started yesterday, they may have also thought the deal would squeeze in before the termination date.
