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Machiavellian said:
EpicRandy said:

While not without incentive, there would need to be a vote out of the deal with shareholders that, if the vote to allow the merger is any indication, would take up to 3 months to set. The simple announcement of such a meeting would cripple the stock value IMO, way more than the gain of $3b which shareholders would not enjoy directly anyway.

The deal is also extremely likely to include no Shop, no Solicitation clause preventing ABK to enter such a talk with other companies which means they will actually need to complete the vote before negotiating with another entity, but that's just me speculating.

The $95/share is already way above the value it's not clear that any other entity would want to go above that.

I think but correct me if I'm wrong, it is ABK that went to Microsoft to be bought, and it's quite possible they've asked other entities in the meantime. So I am not sure why another entity would even be interested that was not before.

IMO, That's why MS and ABK, while negotiating for an extension, are not really in a rush to do so and have not prepared this too much in advance.

Yes, if ABK had to publish a meeting to leave the deal then yes the stock would take a hit.  If ABK then publish a deal where Apple is purchasing them, their stock would jump just as much if not more.  Stocks value go up and down so that is not a big worry especially since it can be a temporary thing.

All the no shop and no Solicitation is gone because the deal has reach its termination point.  ABK does not have to directly communicate to any suiter they are willing to sell, they already did so with MS.  The suiters will come to them and right now in the gaming space its going to be a war on content.  All interested players are looking for content and any new player like Apple or Google need a company at the size of ABK to spring into the market.

I do not remember who approach who first.  At the time Bobby was going though some stuff and I thought that it was Phil that threw out a life line and Bobby said how much you willing to invest.  With everyone really interested in seeing ABK land somewhere, it really does not have to be with MS.

The fact we have not heard about an extension to the deal well before this termination date of today suggest to me that ABK is seriously considering other options and when money like 70Billion is getting thrown around, anything could happen.

All the no shop and no Solicitation is gone because the deal has reach its termination point.

No, the deal is still enforceable until they actually leave, the termination date is only a point where ABK does not need reasons to get out of it, until they do the deal is still fully in effect. If Bobby were to single-handedly get out of the deal he would get sued by shareholders losing way much more than $3b in valuation they were already feeling in their pockets. Bobby told himself during the FTC trial, his responsibility as CEO is to the shareholders. So unless shareholder themselves voice their willingness to get out of the deals it's simply ain't happening.

They already have approached many suiter as highlighted by Ryuu, I'm not seeing in any way why those other entities will see more value now in ABK than they did prior to this deal.

The fact we have not heard about an extension to the deal well before this termination date of today suggest to me that ABK is seriously considering other options and when money like 70Billion is getting thrown around, anything could happen.

To me, it suggests there's no hurry else I would find it highly probable leaks will have occurred displaying MS struggle by now. Also, it's possible that MS and ABK are discussing a new arrangement but won't put it forth for a vote until specifically requested by shareholders. The confidence of all parties seems to be high that it would go through.

Anyway, time will tell.
One thing is for sure, if you are right, the amount of salt added to planet Earth would give reason to Elon Musk to seek to establish a colony on Mars.

Last edited by EpicRandy - on 18 July 2023