Currently Online 
Ryuu96 on 15 July 2023
I mentioned last week that I was expecting "a cascade of announcements" for this one. But I think that so many twists and turns in just 4 days exceeded my expectations :p xD
Well, now that the US is ready to go I guess that there are two main scenarios for next week:
1.- New Zealand approves the acquisition (with or without remedies); the CAT appeal process is officially paused; the CMA keeps the interim order in place but allows MS/ABK to close in every country where the merger can do so; ABK gets replaced/delisted in the Nasdaq; stock market closes on Monday; MS/ABK officially close the merger in 15 jurisdictions and agree to a 6 weeks extension in relation to the CMA "new deal"; Australia finishes its investigation because the merger is completed (and an approval from New Zealand is probably enough for them).
2.- New Zealand approves the acquisition (with or without remedies); the CAT appeal process is officially paused; the CMA keeps the interim order in place; ABK is not replaced/delisted from Nasdaq yet; stock market closes on Monday; MS/ABK officially agree to a 6 weeks extension in relation to the CMA "new deal" and to close everywhere at the same time; Australia keeps the review process suspended until the merger is completed.
Right now I think that scenario 1 feels more likely to happen, but the big question mark is the CMA: will they consent to close everywhere else or not? 🤔
The big turning point of this saga was the FTC PI on June 12th, no doubt. That started the huge domino effect that we have seen during the last 4-5 weeks.
But the mystery still remains, why did the FTC go ahead with it when everything was so under control? I see two options:
A) They panicked because during June the CMA and MS reached an agreement to restructure the deal in one way that would be likely accepted (while contesting the interim order + threatening to close over them + Brad Smith meetings), then the FTC had to move fast because MS could close in the US due to the waiting period being terminated. But in this case, why did the CMA panic 15 days later, rushing an appliation to delay the CAT appeal? If they had an agreement with MS, that move didn't make a lot of sense (they could just have paused the appeal).
B) The CMA and the FTC panicked in early June because they thought that MS was (seriously) considering closing over both: the FTC due to the waiting period being terminated and the CMA through other more complex and unusual ways. The FTC filed the PI and 15 days later the CMA requested to delay the CAT appealing because they saw that the FTC hearing wasn't progressing well. Once the FTC hearing ended, the CMA and MS resumed conversations to reach an agreement to restructure the deal if the FTC PI was denied.
I still think that scenario B was the most likely one, but A could be an option too.
Anyway, at least a few more days to go until this is done (and Monday 17th looks very, very promising for more insanity xD)
Well, now that the US is ready to go I guess that there are two main scenarios for next week:
1.- New Zealand approves the acquisition (with or without remedies); the CAT appeal process is officially paused; the CMA keeps the interim order in place but allows MS/ABK to close in every country where the merger can do so; ABK gets replaced/delisted in the Nasdaq; stock market closes on Monday; MS/ABK officially close the merger in 15 jurisdictions and agree to a 6 weeks extension in relation to the CMA "new deal"; Australia finishes its investigation because the merger is completed (and an approval from New Zealand is probably enough for them).
2.- New Zealand approves the acquisition (with or without remedies); the CAT appeal process is officially paused; the CMA keeps the interim order in place; ABK is not replaced/delisted from Nasdaq yet; stock market closes on Monday; MS/ABK officially agree to a 6 weeks extension in relation to the CMA "new deal" and to close everywhere at the same time; Australia keeps the review process suspended until the merger is completed.
Right now I think that scenario 1 feels more likely to happen, but the big question mark is the CMA: will they consent to close everywhere else or not? 🤔
The big turning point of this saga was the FTC PI on June 12th, no doubt. That started the huge domino effect that we have seen during the last 4-5 weeks.
But the mystery still remains, why did the FTC go ahead with it when everything was so under control? I see two options:
A) They panicked because during June the CMA and MS reached an agreement to restructure the deal in one way that would be likely accepted (while contesting the interim order + threatening to close over them + Brad Smith meetings), then the FTC had to move fast because MS could close in the US due to the waiting period being terminated. But in this case, why did the CMA panic 15 days later, rushing an appliation to delay the CAT appeal? If they had an agreement with MS, that move didn't make a lot of sense (they could just have paused the appeal).
B) The CMA and the FTC panicked in early June because they thought that MS was (seriously) considering closing over both: the FTC due to the waiting period being terminated and the CMA through other more complex and unusual ways. The FTC filed the PI and 15 days later the CMA requested to delay the CAT appealing because they saw that the FTC hearing wasn't progressing well. Once the FTC hearing ended, the CMA and MS resumed conversations to reach an agreement to restructure the deal if the FTC PI was denied.
I still think that scenario B was the most likely one, but A could be an option too.
Anyway, at least a few more days to go until this is done (and Monday 17th looks very, very promising for more insanity xD)
