They need a continuous and strong release schedule every single year. Mario Kart 9, the next 3D Mario, Luigi's Mansion 4, the next Mario Party etc. should all be reserved for the next gen system. Apart from another Pokémon remake next year Tomodachi is the only other game that hasn't been announced or released yet that I can think of that would almost definitely sell over 10mil copies.
If the next Switch doesn't release at the latest in holiday 2024 it would mean a weak final year for the Switch and in turn a further drop in hardware and software sales and a loss in mindshare that would need a higher marketing budget to get back in 2025.
2021-2023 all have been very strong in terms of software releases. They will want to not only keep that up but also not drop to much below 15mil hardware in the fiscal year.
The Switch is old. Just because it's still selling well right now doesn't mean they should wait another 1.5 years at least or even go as far as delay the Switch 2. They almost definitely have it already planned out. March 2025 is not impossible, but I would consider that unwise financially.
I thought it would launch in March 2024. I reconcidered not because of how much hardware the Switch is moving, I reconcidered before it started increasing that much again when Nintendo made their fiscal year forecast in May. There was nothing suggesting new hardware in the fiscal year.
I believe in 2024 they will release a bunch of games that are not hardware showcase types of games on the Switch 1 (like the two they already announced and hopefully Tomodachi) and then 3D Mario as a launch game for the Switch 2 and afterwards MK9, a Pokémon remake as a crossgen release and some smaller party game.
Metroid Prime 4 could be slotted somewhere in there either before the Switch 2 with a nextgen version later, immediately crossgen or as Switch 2 exclusive potentislly only in 2025.
Should the Switch 2 actually launch in early 2025 then MP4 might release in or around October 2024.
Pokémon will be in November regardless.
