| Soundwave said: There are other factors to consider though. They have to build a userbase for Switch 2/Super Switch/whatever sooner than later. No two ways around that. The next 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Smash Bros., Animal Crossing, Splatoon, etc. etc. are likely all ear marked for the Switch successor. You want that system to rip its way to 20 million as fast as possible for multiple reasons. One you want to amass a large userbase as fast as possible to prevent any kind of question marks about being able to succeed the current Switch (which is I guarantee the no.1 thing Nintendo is currently preoccupied with internally, not late-stage Switch stuff, Switch is basically done at this point as far as what Nintendo needs to do for it). Secondly you want the userbase to be large so that those games have a large install base to sell to. Scenario 1 (Switch 2 launch in October 2024) by end of 2025: Switch 1: 144 million install base, Switch 2: 20 million install base Scenario 2 (Switch 2 launch in September 2025) by end of 2025: Switch 1: 150 million install base, Switch 2: 7 million install base Scenario 1 is actually a lot better for Nintendo. The Switch still having positive brand momentum can help the Switch 2, strike while the iron is hot and get those people who would buy a Switch OLED to buy a Switch 2 instead. You'll have them locked in for the next 6+ years to buy Switch 2 software on top of being able to still sell them Switch 1 software. Sony basically did this too, they kinda just took the PS4 option off the table and forced people to essentially buy the PS5. |
Your argument here doesn't give any real ground to why it should release sooner other than that's what you think they should do, Switch isn't done as far as Nintendo is concerned hence why they're still releasing games on it. Your scenario examples ignore the fact that a platform's run is a marathon not some sprint it'll still get to the 20m mark and beyond because a monopoly is leveraged on the platform they effectively already have a userbase built in the Switch itself this is why they're not rushing, many people here predicted a Pro or successor was going to be out by now due to ignoring this factor and it's the main factor here because it gives them a safety net, Switch maybe a hybrid but they're approaching it more like how they handled their portables which had longer phase out periods due to how dominant they were and this is going to continue with Switch.
Portable markets are more accustomed to platforms having longer runs until the next one arrives I think some of you are still looking at Switch in the same lens as a traditional home console where such views are more suited due to the more competitive ecosystem, Switch operates in both markets yes and offers home console level of gaming but business wise is being handled more in the context of the market it and its platform holder are far more dominant in as when you look at the portable market this falls more in line with its predecessors on that side of the market.
