Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[Ryuu96]

EpicRandy said:

It's worth noting that neither the US, Ukraine nor Russia have joined the cluster munition convention. Some other Nato members like Turkey and Greece also did not ban their use.
Still, I don't like the idea to provide such a controversial weapon, but what I like even less is an armed conflict where the protagonist uses different sets of rules.
Also, I'm sure Ukraine may let Nato/close ally monitor planned usage to make sure civilians are out of range.

As for diplomatic repercussions, I think it should not amount to anything game-changer.
The ability for Russia to throw a tantrum on this is weak, but I'm sure they still will and show again how hypocritical they are.
The probability for 3rd party such as China to escalate support to Russia as a result of this is also very weak for the same reasons.
The probability for 3rd party to decrease support for Ukraine is moderate but I think common sense will prevail in the end and it certainly was the focus of US consultation with their ally.
Nato membership might be a little more complex as a result, but as this is out of the question until the conflict is over anyway it does not change much and the urgency of the situation is a priority

My Thoughts

Really, a counterpoint to some arguments, not really directly responding to you perse but I knew the issue would arise and wanted to provide some counterpoints, I understand the worry about the post war clean-up but I think the pros outweigh the cons, amongst other reasons I'm not against the decision.

1. The USA, Ukraine, Russia and multiple other countries haven't joined the agreement. It is also my understanding that the agreement is a pretty light one, it isn't really enforceable aside from moaning and countries can easily leave it whenever they want to.

2. Ukraine & Russia have been using cluster munitions since the start of the war, if anything, America's ones are probably better quality than the shit currently deployed by both sides because America has been working for years now on improving the dud rate. As an example, America is only sending cluster munitions with a dud rate of less than 1% to Ukraine.

3. They're largely going to be used on static trenches along the frontlines, nowhere near civilians, on areas which are already littered with UXOs (Unexploded Ordnances). Cluster Munitions or not, a large part of Ukraine is already going to be a UXO hellscape for decades, the cluster munitions will be a drop in the bucket all things considered.

Grenades, RPGs, Mortars, Artillery, etc. They all have dud rates too, as an example, 10m artillery rounds have an average dud rate of 300k. This is without even mentioning the thousands of mines which will be littering the grounds, also the mines swept by the dam which Ukraine now has no clue where they are, mines covering the entire frontline.

Cluster Munitions will largely be used for trenches and open fielded Russian positions where civilians are nowhere to be found, but unfortunately, post war, they will likely be civilians navigating these areas and they will likely trip off UXOs. At this stage, that is happening no matter what.

4. Ukraine however, will be the ones firing the cluster munitions on their own soil, as a result, they will be able to monitor and track the areas they're used in and clean them up as well as could be expected post-war, obviously they won't get them all but it's a large difference to someone else firing cluster munitions on your soil or hiding landlines across your country, because it's harder to track the area they're in.

5. A lot of countries who have banned cluster munitions have not recently had to make the difficult decision of whether to use them on their own soil or not because these countries have not been invaded lately, a lot of these countries which have banned cluster munitions have been the invaded of other countries, which then makes the decision even more understandable because it goes like this...

Western country invades some Middle-Eastern country (as per usual), spits cluster munitions all over their land and then fucks off and leaves the civilians to deal with it without cleaning up their mess. Western countries have made the decision largely to not use them on foreign soil because it's fucked up to use them on foreign soil and then fuck off afterwards, Lol.

Ukraine is making a decision to use them on its own soil and they will deal with the consequences afterwards (with our help) and they will have the capability and support to clean up after themselves after the war is over.

6. The biggest threat to Ukraine is currently Russians themselves, not cluster munitions or any other weapon that could be provided to Ukraine. If the cluster munitions shorten the war and get Russians out quicker then that would be a net positive because we've already seen what the Russians are doing to every city they come across, to the Ukrainians, to the environment, taking out entire regions environmentally for decades to come.

7. Russia already uses cluster munitions so they have no right to moan, China isn't part of the pact so likewise they can't moan, I don't see support dropping when support is already largely USA, UK won't care and Eastern Europe will likely cheer it on. Maybe France and Germany moans but I doubt it. I also don't think it will affect their NATO membership when some NATO members don't even recognise the pact.

8. Unfortunately, it's a truth that Western nations can't keep up with Ukraine's artillery demand because Western nations don't rely on artillery for wars, so it's either something else fills the gaps (cluster munitions) or the offensive comes to a slow and brutal grind, because Ukraine will start running low on artillery ammo and it's already hard enough breaking through mine riddled fields and entrenched Russian positions.

---

Sidenote: It's annoying to see "Human Rights" companies moan about this but barely mention all the times Russia bombs a Ukraine restaurant, a block of flats, or how quiet everyone was when Russia blew the dam and caused way more damage than cluster munitions with a dud rate of less than 1% will cause in the long term.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 07 July 2023