Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

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Russians with ties to the Kremlin expressed relief that Wagner’s mutiny did not spark a civil war. But they agreed that Vladimir Putin had come off looking weak in a way that could be lasting.

Konstantin Remchukov, a Moscow newspaper editor with Kremlin connections, said in a telephone interview that what once had seemed unthinkable was now possible: that people close to Mr. Putin could seek to persuade him not to stand for re-election in Russia's presidential vote next spring. With Saturday's events, he said, Mr. Putin had conclusively lost his status as the guarantor of the elite's wealth and security.

The idea that "Putin is in power and provides stability and guarantees security — it suffered a fiasco on the 24th," Mr. Remchukov said. "If I was sure a month ago that Putin would run unconditionally because it was his right, now I see that the elites can no longer feel unconditionally secure."

Mr. Remchukov, the newspaper editor, said the jitters touched off by Mr. Prigozhin's uprising could be felt in ways large and small in the Russian capital. He said he knew of prominent Russians who had fled Moscow on the day of the rebellion. For his part, Mr. Remchukov said he had stayed put in Moscow, but had decided against taking his Mercedes or Bentley out for a drive on Saturday for fear that Mr. Prigozhin's forces might confiscate it if they did indeed reach the city.

Two people close to the Kremlin, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive political issues, described the crisis as first and foremost the product of a dysfunctional system of governance verging on chaos — vividly captured in the Russian word bardak.

For Mr. Putin himself, the mutiny could spark an "existential crisis," said Sergei Markov, a political analyst and former Kremlin adviser.

"What he always took pride in is the solidity of Russian statehood and political stability," Mr. Markov said. "That's what they loved him for. And it turns out that it doesn't exist."

Did Prigozhin’s Revolt in Russia Harm Putin’s Staying Power? - The New York Times

Konstantin Remchukov, a Moscow newspaper editor with Kremlin ties, now thinks Putin might not stand for reelection next year. The idea that “Putin is in power and provides stability and guarantees security — it suffered a fiasco on the 24th.” https://t.co/3BeJPHF3QH

— Anton Troianovski (@antontroian) June 25, 2023