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Finally & importantly, Russia’s narrative that it can keep this war going forever, outlast Ukraine and the West, etc., has just taken a very nasty and very public hit. It was always at least partly bluster. I wonder how it’s going to hold up in the days and weeks to come. 6/6
— Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) (@OlyaOliker) June 25, 2023
My thoughts on the implications of Prigozhin's mutiny this weekend: 🧵
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) June 25, 2023
First, what have we learned from this?
2. That another armed column of a few thousand troops (some of them former convicts!) can just drive into a major Russian city of a million people and take it over without firing a shot, including a major military command center and an airbase pic.twitter.com/y7FWp2EJr8
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) June 25, 2023
4. That Lukashenko is much braver than Putin and is more capable of acting decisively to preserve his hold on power, something that Putin seems to have little ability to do https://t.co/rjlCP1Y0dB
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) June 25, 2023
6. That loyalty to Putin does not run deep. In the crucial 13 hours before Putin's speech, few came out in support of him. No governors, no Duma members, not even his national security council. Only 2 generals Surovikin and Alekseev recorded 'hostage videos' urging Wagner to stop
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) June 25, 2023
1. This episode is far from over. Wagner and Prigozhin did not surrender. They withdrew in an orderly fashion, with all of their equipment and forces in tact (with the support of cheering and hugging crowds) pic.twitter.com/TouW8ZRwQf
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) June 25, 2023
2. I do not, for one second, believe anything that comes out of Dmitry Peskov's mouth (a notorious liar and one who is literally never in the loop on anything) and so far he is the only source of the comments about Moscow's deal with Prigozhin https://t.co/GPZqKXGGY0
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) June 25, 2023
4. Prigozhin's name recognition is now one of the highest in Russia. He had challenged the Kremlin and (so far) has gotten away with it. If he survives, he may have created a significant political base for himself in Russian politics - one that did not exist prior to this weekend
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) June 25, 2023
I think Putin has demonstrated exceptional weakness and limited control over the levers of power in Russia. He has also so far not shown that he is capable of reasserting that control. He could still do so but the clock is ticking and chaos might erupt if he doesn't
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) June 25, 2023
Putin is in real danger of becoming irrelevant as various clans across the system (security services, governors, etc) might follow in Prigozhin's footsteps and start to take actions and pursue their interests without coordination or approval from the Kremlin
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) June 25, 2023
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