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Ryuu96 on 25 June 2023
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EpicRandy said:

There are many details to which we know nothing in this story but one thing is for sure the behavior of Prigozhin was very very odd.

What we know:

  • He successfully established somewhat secure ground in Russia
  • successfully appealed to some Russian troops to join him
  • successfully obtain support from the local population.
  • There was no immediate opposition to his march on Moscow ( Kadyrov's forces were about to challenge them on the very south of their position leaving corridors to Moscow fully open).
  • Putin is known to assassinate opposition and critics alike so even if Prigozhin got all he wanted from Putin he must know that he will be under constant assassination threats.
  • Any concession he got from Putin, he could have given himself by taking power.

So what is it that made him back down?

The only thing that made sense to me is that something gave him the undeniable assurance of failing in his attempts.

For Putin we know:

  • He wants to hold onto power more than anything else
  • He's reckless with his own population even going as far as using them as props in false flag operations
  • He's even more reckless to a populace that supports his opponents.

Given all that, I can't help but think the situation was actually resolved under threats of using a tactical nuclear weapon on Prigozhin even if it meant heavy collateral damage.

Well, Prigozhin has been trash talking Shoigu/Gerasimov for months already, which is fine, but the moment that Shoigu/Gerasimov unveiled plans to snatch Wager away from him, it became clear that they're going to come into conflict one way or another. Wagner is Prigozhin's baby, it's his only source of money, it's the only way he has power in this world and Shoigu was threatening to take it from him. To me, it looked like a last ditch effort to save his "baby" which was a very stupid and dangerous effort but perfectly in line with what someone like Prigozhin would do.

Then we come to his fight and we can say that, sure he secured some grounds but we don't actually know the extent of the "defections" to Wagner, Prigozhin's words can't be trusted, all we saw were poorly equipped soldiers and riot cops standing aside and letting them through but there's a huge difference between siding with someone and standing out the way of someone, who can blame them really? Foot soldiers wouldn't have stood a chance against that column, they'd be dead after firing a single bullet.

Even IF Wagner took Moscow, and that's a huge IF because it's frigging Moscow, Putin had already fled to St Petersburg and Shoigu/Gerasimov were god knows where. Wagner would NOT have held Moscow Imho, it may not have been the same day, it may not have been the next week, but eventually, Russia would have took back Moscow and killed them all and it wouldn't have needed a nuke and I think Prigozhin knew that, I think this is simply a bunch of stupid old men playing a game of who blinks first.

I think if Prigozhin did take Moscow, he wouldn't have got any concessions at all, he would have got a bullet to the head, I also still strongly doubt that Prigozhin has any intention of taking any sort of political power, I don't think he wants it, nor does he have any political support, as I keep saying, Prigozhin is a nobody in Russia's political sphere, he has no power there, sure he can take power with a bunch of thugs but they don't run countries, they kill people for countries, they wouldn't have been able to run shit.

It was apparently Lukashenko that made Prigozhin back down, Putin didn't even speak to him. Lukashenko negotiated on Putin's behalf.

There are still a few questions we need answering first though before determining who came out of this with more concessions.

  • The MoD says that Wagner in Ukraine will sign to MoD but it says nothing about the Wagner involved in the coup having to sign to the MoD...It only says that their crimes will be forgiven, in fact, they're still holding some Russian airports. So what is happening? Are they going to Belarus as well? Will they be forced to sign a MoD contract too? Will Prigozhin still run them but only via Belarus? Will someone else run them instead?
  • What happens to the Wagner in Africa? Russia officially pretends that they don't exist and they have nothing to do with them, will Prigozhin be able to run Wagner in Africa from Belarus? Is this a way for Prigozhin to get out of the Ukraine mess and abandon the rest of his men?

If only the Wagner in Ukraine have to sign to the MoD then Prigozhin likely won't give a shit, it was clearly his best who couped, the ones left in Ukraine are probably just Vatniks and Prisoners. If he can take the ones involved in the coup that Prigozhin still has quite a powerful mercenary force and a lot of loyalty to him still, including Utkin (hell why wasn't Utkin force to leave for Belarus?)

Either way though, Prigozhin is dumb and he has a clock on his life, Putin won't forgive or forget this, maybe it won't be during the war with Ukraine but it will be someday that I have no doubt, Prigozhin is the first to ever expose weakness in Putin and I can't see him letting that slide. I think it just depends when, if Prigozhin still has access to Wagner then he still has quite a formidable force that is loyal to him still.