There are many details to which we know nothing in this story but one thing is for sure the behavior of Prigozhin was very very odd.
What we know:
- He successfully established somewhat secure ground in Russia
- successfully appealed to some Russian troops to join him
- successfully obtain support from the local population.
- There was no immediate opposition to his march on Moscow ( Kadyrov's forces were about to challenge them on the very south of their position leaving corridors to Moscow fully open).
- Putin is known to assassinate opposition and critics alike so even if Prigozhin got all he wanted from Putin he must know that he will be under constant assassination threats.
- Any concession he got from Putin, he could have given himself by taking power.
So what is it that made him back down?
The only thing that made sense to me is that something gave him the undeniable assurance of failing in his attempts.
For Putin we know:
- He wants to hold onto power more than anything else
- He's reckless with his own population even going as far as using them as props in false flag operations
- He's even more reckless to a populace that supports his opponents.
Given all that, my theory is, it was actually resolved under threats of using a tactical nuclear weapon on Prigozhin even if it meant heavy collateral damage.
The worst is, I'm not seeing many cons to such a measure compared to pros for Putin as a dictator.
- Tactical nuclear weapons are made to be used with their own troops nearby so the collateral damage would have been limited.
- The media could have then proceeded to paint Prigozhin as a nazi to justify the action (which would not be hard since he is one) and something akin to (it was revealed he made deals with Ukrainians nazis).
- The West would be discussing another war crime but won't do anything else since it would have been used inside Russian territory
- If anything, the threats of nuclear weapons would have become more real and given him more leverage over Western support to Ukraine.
- Could use this even to escalate to a full war and enact full mobilization
- Putin's opponents would lay even lower than before.
Of course, This would not have been without risk, but that's why "negotiating" first was a must. But if the negotiation failed, Putin would have been like a cornered rat that had nothing to lose anymore so would risk anything if it meant there was a possibility to retain power. And even if Putin had also the assurance to lose power in the process, he has been shown willfully and recklessly destroy anything it would lose grasp on anyway.
Last edited by EpicRandy - on 25 June 2023
