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Some early thoughts:
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 24, 2023
-More questions than answers
-Short-term compromise ≠ long-term solution
-This was a mutiny not a coup
-Too soon to say Putin will fall anytime soon
-Not clear this will affect Ukraine's offensive
-The previous Kremlin-Wagner relationship is over
-What started as a factional dispute between powerful Russian figures became a public challenge to Putin
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 24, 2023
-This event was designed to get Putin's attention
-Possibly one of the worst days in the Russian Air Force's history and caused by Russians
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-There is a difference between soldiers and police not shooting at Wagner and joining them
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 24, 2023
-Putin and the security services will likely try to weaken Wagner or remove Prigozhin
-Given Wagner's presence overseas, the greatest effects from this event may be felt in MENA/Africa
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