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Ryuu96 on 24 June 2023
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SecondWar said:

I am wondering how this will impact the frontline in Ukraine both today and the next few days. Does Putin feel he has enough troops back in Russia to keep Wagner at bay or does he need to pull some back, thus giving Ukraine the chance to take advantage? Then as other has pointed out, with Rostov under Wagner control how does this impact the supply to Russia force in Ukraine? Plus has Wagner taken all of its forces from Ukraine to march on Moscow, as presumably they won't be fighting with Russia in Ukraine and against Russia in Russia. If so, how does that affect the Russia forces in Ukraine?

If Wagner manages to turn this into a more protracted face-off last months and Proggozhin is really aiming to usurp Putin, does Putin have the capability to fight Ukraine and Wagner at the same time. And can this snowball? Kadyrov has declared for Putin now but if this becomes protracted does he try to splinter away? Do other countries like Georgia maybe see their chance to retaken territory occupied by Russia?

FSB has likely been mostly held back from the Ukraine war, as have Kadyrov's troops, but I do wonder about the rest of them.

If Putin doesn't have enough troops, smartest thing to do would be to pullback troops in areas where they've suffered the least casualties, less chance of defecting to Wagner, that means Ukraine can advance though, so I'm thinking maybe around the Northern Luhansk area? Maybe even pull some troops from Crimea?

Could we maybe see Russia pull troops from other countries if things get too serious? Pull out of Syria? Georgia?

Rostov is a MAJOR supply hub to practically the whole Russian Southern front so if Prigozhin doesn't allow supplies to go through it then they're fucked as long as Ukraine can get past the minefield but Wagner would probably have to hold onto it for a good while before we notice supply issues.

There's definitely not 25,000 in Russia so I think some are still in Ukraine but who knows, Lol. Number is likely very exaggerated or includes Wagner in Africa too.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 24 June 2023