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Ryuu96 on 09 June 2023
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crissindahouse said:

I know they will lose a lot and attacking is obviously much harder but I also see how many fortified positions Russia has (Tokmak alone is crazy). It seems as if it will take some time to even reach Tokmak and if Ukraine will lose already a bunch of their modern tanks and IFVs before they even reach Tokmak (and that's still not Mariupol), it just doesn't look as good to me as for everyone else... if Ukraine would only need to break through this first line but Russia has build this shit everywhere now because we gave them this time.

And I also wouldn't think so much about it if I would know that the next 100 modern tanks are already on the way. But I am not sure if countries like Spain or Portugal will even send more in the future. Poland gave so much already not sure if they have much left they can do. And Germany abandoned their own military so much the last decade(s) that we don't even have many tanks which even work properly...and like I said, even replacing those 18 Leo 2 Germany sent will take until 2025...the production of new modern tanks is just so damn slow...

I hope I'm wrong but I have a feeling that it's even harder as Ukraine and the supporters thought. Even if they won't say it obviously.

Tokmok is crazily fortified because it's crazy important.

It is the centre of 5 major roads, connecting to 2 major cities (Melitopol and Berdyans'k)

Now here is the rail line.

It goes practically right through Tokmak.

If Ukraine takes Tokmak then they practically cut Russia off from 1/2 major supply routes.

If Ukraine takes Tokmak then basically everything to the West of it will be under huge pressure to be supplied.

Capture Tokmak and you basically cut the Russian army in two, with a river to protect Ukraine from the West.

Quick Explainer: Why Tokmak is as important as Izium, Lyman or Kupiansk

I'll say right now that Ukraine will NOT liberate Mariupol in this offensive, and as much as a nice feeling it would be, Mariupol isn't really that important to retake with what they have now. The Kerch Bridge will be within range of Storm Shadow at Tokmak.

This offensive will probably be an attempt to liberate Tokmak, potentially Melitopol and then another rest.

Zaluzhny doesn't mention Mariupol either: Zaluzhny: To Get To Crimea, We Need To Liberate Melitopol | MENAFN.COM

“In order to reach the borders of Crimea, as of today we need to cover a distance of 84km to Melitopol. By the way, this is enough for us, because Melitopol would give us a full fire control of the land corridor, because from Melitopol we can already fire at the Crimean Isthmus, with the very same himars and so on,”

This was before they got Storm Shadow though.

This will be hard, it's what I'm trying to say though, Ukraine is going to lose a lot of equipment and soldiers to achieve this and it won't be the final offensive, they'll need to rest for the next one which will likely align with F-16s but if they take Tokmak then that alone would be a major win and massive blow to Russians on the West side of Ukraine.