The Kakhovka dam collapse will limit Ukraine's options for offensive operations over the Dnipro.
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 6, 2023
But it's Russian positions across the river that will be the most flood-hit, leaving invading forces more vulnerable longer-term.
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Russia's likely involvement pointed to its fears of the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive, said Pavel Luzin, a visiting scholar at Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.
He said that the dam's construction — an earth fill dam, made of compacted soil — meant it could only have been blown up from the inside and would have been left largely undamaged by artillery strikes. "They spent all of May trying to stop the attack with more missile attacks. It didn't work, so they decided to blow up a power station," Luzin said.
But Russia's positions would likely be worse affected than Ukraine's in the longer term, he added. "The water will flow away in a few days, and it's the Russian positions on the left bank that are flooded," he said.
Residents of Russian-occupied areas along the river described a tense and nervous atmosphere as they waited to see which areas would be affected. Ilona's own house, which she had to leave behind when she fled the Russian invasion last spring, is not far from her mother's. After living with her three children "out of our car" for the past year, she had hoped to return to the family home some day.
Now, the house had been completely flooded, she said. "It tears me apart."
On the Ukrainian-controlled side of the river, authorities urged tens of thousands of residents in and around flooded areas to leave and to take their pets if they could. Zoriana Stelmakh, a Ukrainian volunteer in the settlement of Sadove, on the west bank of the Dnipro about 40km downstream from the dam, said residents were reluctant to leave despite the devastation and rising waters. "People don't want to go because they hope that everything will change soon," she added.
She described pleading with an older man who had climbed on top of his roof to get away from the flood, and refused to leave.
On the Russian-held side, the Moscow-installed head of the occupied areas of Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo, said in a video on Tuesday morning that "as a result of an explosion, water in the Dnipro river below the Kakhovka reservoir rose by up to four metres", but had stabilised.
In the video recorded from a car, Saldo said the breach would not affect local residents or Russia's ability to defend its positions on the river — but half an hour later his administration announced the start of evacuations from coastal areas.
