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Yeah no way they are gonna tank Switch's holiday sales by announcing this year. That'd be crazy. There is no hot iron that needs to be hit. Switch is incredibly popular, it is just gradually reaching market saturation at launch price levels of course, they could easily boost sales and keep it going strong an extra year if they actually wanted to push HW and SW sales with price cuts. But they apparently would rather just replace it than do price cuts, likely because they just don't have much in the way of AAA first party games left to release, and all the big new games are already being made for next-gen.

Anyway, early to mid 2024 announcement, mid to late 2024 release. Announce with some details, wait a couple months and give a full breakdown with big launch titles, wait a month and give lots of details on launch games, wait another month or two and launch. That's like 4-5 months from announcement to launch. Shouldn't need more than that really. At absolute most 6 months.