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Ryuu96 on 20 May 2023
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NyanNyanNekoChan said:

I'm surprised Ukraine managed to hold Bakhmut for so long.
If I recall the wagner chief Prigozhin offered to reveal Russian troop locations to Ukraine if the Ukrainian army pulled out of Bakhmut. I suppose it's a bit copium of me to hope that Bakhmut fell due to a deal being made, resulting in the Ukrainian army getting a bunch of intel out of this. I doubt anyone on the Ukrainian side would trust Prigozhin anyway...

Either way, spending 9 months to destroy Bakhmut and take whatever ruins are remaining, it's pretty lame progress, maybe even regression considering the Russian side performed the "goodwill gesture" in Kherson to accumulate the manpower to achieve this.

That was Ukraine who said that so it's likely not true and Ukrainian psyops trying to spread shit because Prigozhin and Shoigu hate each other. I would not be surprised if Prigozhin pulls Wagner back now and sends them to Africa to spread shit there because I think Prigozhin actually sees the situation better than Russia and realises it's an unwinnable war but we shall see what he does soon. I don't think Wagnerites who spent months trying to take Bakhmut will have enough fuel in the tank to go take on newly formed Ukrainian brigades across other frontlines.

Now Prigozhin gets paid for taking Bakhmut and gets the credit of taking it and if/when Russia loses it, Prigozhin takes none of the blame because Wagner is no longer there and their only responsibility is offence, not defence. Unfortunately Prigozhin kind of comes out of this with a little win but Russia as a whole it was a complete sunk cost, pyrrhic victory.

Ukraine lost it because it simply couldn't be held onto anymore, Wagner's tactic (and well Russia's tactic) to taking Bakhmut was to just completely flatten it, bomb it to hell and that means Ukraine doesn't have any defensible positions to hold, there is literally nothing left to defend, so they have no choice but to leave, on the flip side though, that leaves it harder for Russians to defend as well, especially if Ukraine pushes their flanks, but that isn't Prigozhin's problem anymore.

If Ukraine does push the flanks, Russia has a choice of abandoning Bakhmut or risking encirclement. Or Ukraine may just keep them distracted at Bakhmut still whilst they build an offensive elsewhere, not a single newly formed brigade has been sent to Bakhmut so far so it clearly isn't going to be the area of the offensive but more a way to distract Russian forces and even with them holding the city, they'll need to keep feeding Russians into the grinder if they want to maintain it.

Ukraine will need to be careful that Russia doesn't push from Bakhmut straight to the next city, so hopefully they have sent up multiple defensive lines beyond Bakhmut. If they have then they probably just need to hold that area until the offensive starts and Russia scrambles to reinforce the frontlines. Rather than actually trying to encircle Russia in Bakhmut.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 20 May 2023