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It’s becoming clearer now what is happening.
— Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) May 17, 2023
This could either end up in a double envelopment of Russian forces (note for one of the variants of a double envelopment the Ukrainians should withdraw their centre and push on their flanks - in slow time this is actually what is happening).
— Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) May 17, 2023
And so by using a relatively small amount of resources, they are fixing an EVEN greater number of Russian forces into the Bahkmut area.
— Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) May 17, 2023
This means that they have less Russian forces to deal with elsewhere.
— Mike Martin 🔶 (@ThreshedThought) May 17, 2023
Like Kherson, where they are steadily consolidating their position.
Or Tokmak, where they struck AGAIN yesterday.
1/6 Elements of the 10th Tank regiment part of the newly formed 3rd 🇷🇺 army corps, arrived around 13th of may in the area of the town of Odradivka (48.494300,38.014800). They had previously been deployed near Avdiivka, were they were involved a multiple failed frontal assaults pic.twitter.com/ufJvzG4Wqc
— NLwartracker (@NLwartracker) May 18, 2023
3/6 Their arrival in the area south of Bakhmut is likely an attempt to stop Ukrainian advances in this area.The unit took up positions along the T0513 road between Odradivka and Optyne. Almost immediatly after their arrival shelling and drone attacks by 🇺🇦 forces took their toll. pic.twitter.com/fRZ5WEb22g
— NLwartracker (@NLwartracker) May 18, 2023
6/6 🇺🇦 forces are moving slowly as not to overstretch their lines on both sides of Bakhmut, so next weeks will be crucial to the fate of Russian/Wagner sources inside the city, if 🇺🇦 can move beyond the T0513, things are starting to look grim for these forces.#SlavaUkraïni 🇺🇦🇺🇦
— NLwartracker (@NLwartracker) May 18, 2023
Mike may be onto something, looks like Russia is dead set on reinforcing Bakhmut while Ukraine will prepare an attack elsewhere.
