Xbox |OT|

[Ryuu96]

EpicRandy said:

Ryuu96 said:

Been thinking lately, I've read recently that when Microsoft/Activision renegotiate the end date, the breakup fee and the merger price will increase so with that being said, I think there is a very strong chance that will be when the merger will end. Activision-Blizzard is holding steady even with everyone accepting the deal is dead so Microsoft will have to fork up a lot more for not only the breakup fee but the merger price.

I think Activision-Blizzard has a much stronger negotiating position now compared to when Microsoft tried to acquire them and so they'll demand a lot more and it may be too much for Microsoft, not in the sense of being able to but in the sense of wanting to, and I think Activision-Blizzard will see their share price holding steady and won't be in a rush to sell again so they are at an advantage in negotiations once again.

Saying they'll fight it now is all well and good but we'll see when the money comes out how they really feel.

True, but, IMO  it's another argument as to why MS should just pause their Xcloud Initiative globally and close the deal. The breakup fee alone already amount to several year worths of XCloud revenue after all. 

I'm thinking MS could just be waiting for the EU to approve and maybe some other market too, then they'll "pause" Xcloud globally and close over the FTC. Also, MS could just license their XCloud server to a third party and contract them to offer the same experience with GPU essentially making CMA conclusion a non-standing issue and still be feature complete on GPU and still be able to bring some revenue from Xcloud technologies.

Anyway Still think it's unlikely, something like 25%, but the more I think about this route and all the possibilities MS would have to mitigate any losses and the undeniable extreme benefits of closing the deals the more I think MS would be very dumb not to shelve Xcloud for 4-5 years.

There's no way around it now though, CMA has blocked the deal, Microsoft can't offer anymore concessions until it goes through CAT first and that will go way beyond the merger agreement date, negotiations with CMA are finished and can't be re-opened. As long as they don't have CMA's approval, they can't close the deal.

Idas estimated that the breakup fee would increase to $5bn-$8bn and looking at Activision-Blizzard's current market cap, Microsoft acquired them at a 45% premium back then for $69bn cash so if we use the same 45% premium, they'd now be acquiring Activision-Blizzard now for $96bn if I've got that right, Lol.

In addition, Microsoft's market value actually increased when the news broke of CMA blocking the deal so I wonder if MS shareholders even want ABK.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 15 May 2023