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No, I don't think that there is a 0% chance of the deal going forward. But there is a low to very low chance of this going forward because lots of things have to happen and they need 12-18 extra months: - The EC and SAMR have to approve it (likely). - Everyone else has to approve it (very likely, but Australia could be a wild card). - ABK and MS need to renegotiate the merger agreement (my guess is that they will set a new outside date + 2 possible extensions, a new break up fee up to 5-6B and maybe even some ticking fees to compensate shareholders with the per-share merger price increased by fractions of a penny-per-day for each additional day, for example). - They'll have to find a way to accelerate the case with the FTC (or they will have to deal with the administrative process for a very long time) and win them in court. - CAT has to rule in their favor (I think that the stats are around 25-30%; very hard but not impossible and they have quite a unique case). - The CMA has to review the case again and issue a new final report (at least they would have a new chance to offer remedies). So, no 0% chance but not an easy task and we could be here forever :p xD |
Sorry I know some are sick of hearing about this....
Last edited by the-pi-guy - on 12 May 2023
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