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Ryuu96 on 10 May 2023
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Machiavellian said:
Ryuu96 said:

Yes.

CMA wants the deal blocked. CAT doesn't look into the decision itself, they only look into whether the CMA acted irrationally, broke the law or broke procedure. In addition, no new evidence can be submitted to CAT, they only look into what was already submitted. Microsoft can't offer CMA anything new unless CAT throws it back to CMA.

Irrationality is their only course and it's an extremely high bar. Even IF (and it's a massive if), CAT throws it back to CMA, they'll find another reason to block the deal. The only extreme long-shot they have is ring-fencing but CMA have already stated they are acting as a global regulator so they'll want anything Microsoft does structurally to apply worldwide.

Deal is dead.

The CMA cannot act as the global regulator.  That gives the CMA way to much power.  As you stated, what can they stand on if the Cloud SLC no longer an issue.  It would be a huge overreach to try and then bring up something which was not part of the original decision.

They technically can and they've already said so to Microsoft that they want the concessions to apply worldwide. They will simply argue that the concessions need to be worldwide because only applying the concessions to UK won't protect competition elsewhere which in turn WILL have an effect on UK markets too.

CMA has too much power.

The best chance Microsoft has, and probably only chance, is it CAT determines that Cloud Gaming isn't its own market.

If that happens then yeah it will be hard for CMA. They're clearly set on blocking the deal though, I've no doubt that they've wanted it blocked since it was announced and just tried to find an argument to fit it.

My understanding is that once it's sent back to CMA, the Phase 2 process can begin again and a different group inside of the CMA looks at the deal, new evidence can be submitted and new demands can be issued, the new group can come to different interpretations or the same one but it won't be as long as the first time since a lot of evidence is already there.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 10 May 2023